####018002665#### AWUS01 KWNH 120928 FFGMPD MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-121526- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0029 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 427 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...much of Louisiana, central/southern Mississippi, and a small part of east Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 120926Z - 121526Z Summary...Convective bands will continue to increase and grow upscale into clusters and lines while moving eastward across the discussion area. A few areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates are expected, which should pose a flash flood risk especially near sensitive areas. Discussion...Over the past hour or so, radar mosaic imagery has depicted a distinct uptick in convective activity across east Texas and Louisiana. The increase in convection is likely tied to a dramatic increase in southerly 850mb flow along the Sabine River Valley (into the 40-60 kt range) along with attendant convergence/ascent. The eastward movement of a distinct mid-level shortwave trough and steep lapse rates aloft were also contributing factors to the increase in convection. Most storms are elevated above a cool stable boundary layer, although mergers and growth into linear segments with localized training have already been observed near/just east of Lufkin, where spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates were already estimated via MRMS. These convective trends are expected to continue, with observations and CAMs both suggestive of upscale growth into one or two dominant complexes that move eastward across the region. Many cell mergers are anticipated and localized training will remain a distinct possibility. These factors should contribute to occasional 1-2 inch/hr rain rates at times as storms move eastward through the discussion area. These rates should approach FFG thresholds - especially along an axis from Lufkin to Greenville to Columbus where prior rainfall has contributed to wet soils and <1.5 inch/hr FFG thresholds. Prolonged rainfall along and south of this axis (i.e., greater than 1 hour of heavy rainfall) may also result in flash flooding. This threat is expected to persist through 15Z, with occasional convective redevelopment in east Texas indicated in the models throughout the morning. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...SHV... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33888837 33218839 32128857 31239008 30539215 30489469 31609498 32489388 33409101 33838960 ####018000749#### PENA01 KWNH 121200 @UHPISF000CNé MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12120225@@0NMCGPHMPD^@!' `' ` @ ê¾& êBñ7)p&¬PNAM02@@G“j‚ƒƒ…†„„„…†……†……„„†…„„„„…††…ƒƒ}zx{‚{‚z€zÿzþ{ý|ý{ü{û{ü|û{ü}ü|û}ü|û}û|û}û}ú~û}ú~ú~ù~ú~ùúû÷ûüþÿ€ @@“j€@@“j€@@Æ€0029 @@d&€MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d&þ€ OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d&ü€ TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d&ú€ ISSUED 02/12/2025 0928Z @@ d™€NOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d™þ€ WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d™ü€ FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d™ú€ WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @