####018001907#### AWUS01 KWNH 120056 FFGMPD NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-120333- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0388 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 855 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Areas affected...portions of Northeast PA & the NJ/NY border Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 120053Z - 120333Z Summary...A mesoscale wave of low pressure has been leading to some heavy rainfall as of late in northeast PA. Over the next few hours, hourly rain amounts to 3" appear possible where cells merge or train. Discussion...An incoming convective line has led to a mesoscale wave near Scranton PA, which has led to some cell training. Additional convection lies ahead of this wave near the northern PA/NJ border over the top of an instability pool with 2000-3000 J/kg of ML CAPE. Effective bulk shear is near 30 kts. The instability gradient near the NJ/NY border aligns with a low-level convergence zone which extends from the NY/NJ border east-southeast across western Long Island, partially caused by convective outflow from thunderstorms which passed through Long Island a couple of hours ago. The mesoscale guidance generally does not advertise thunderstorms with heavy rainfall to escape northeast PA. However, none of the ongoing convection appears to be dying quite yet, so there remains a threat for heavy/excessive rainfall in this region for some unspecified time. Hourly rainfall amounts to 3" remain possible until the thunderstorms with heavy rainfall wane tonight. Since it is unclear how long the organized convection will hold on, used a three hour time horizon. Roth ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...OKX...PHI... ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC... LAT...LON 41637509 41297423 41107413 40867435 40917498 41307577 ####018001203#### PENA01 KWNH 121200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12120626@@0NMCGPHMPD$@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@}}|}~@@@@@@=D~}}}}}||{{{zzz{{}}}}~}~~~~@@D@@D@@D}|{|zzzzzzz{zztzh{||y{|}~ ~|@@@@@@>n|||}|}~~}}~}~~~~~||z|z{{@@n@@n@@0385 @@0386 @@0387 @@0388 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 06/12/2026 0055Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @####018001914#### AWUS01 KWNH 120059 FFGMPD NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-120333- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0388 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 858 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Areas affected...portions of Northeast PA & the NJ/NY border Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 120053Z - 120333Z Summary...A mesoscale wave of low pressure has been leading to some heavy rainfall as of late in northeast PA. Over the next few hours, hourly rain amounts to 3" appear possible where cells merge or train. Discussion...An incoming convective line has led to a mesoscale wave near Scranton PA, which has led to some cell training. Additional convection lies ahead of this wave near the northern PA/NJ border over the top of an instability pool with 2000-3000 J/kg of ML CAPE. Effective bulk shear is near 30 kts. The instability gradient near the NJ/NY border aligns with a low-level convergence zone which extends from the NY/NJ border east-southeast across western Long Island, partially caused by convective outflow from thunderstorms which passed through Long Island a couple of hours ago. The mesoscale guidance generally does not advertise thunderstorms with heavy rainfall to escape northeast PA. However, none of the ongoing convection appears to be dying quite yet, so there remains a threat for heavy/excessive rainfall in this region for some unspecified time. Hourly rainfall amounts to 3" remain possible until the thunderstorms with heavy rainfall wane tonight. Since it is unclear how long the organized convection will hold on, used a nearly three hour time horizon. Roth ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...OKX...PHI... ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC... LAT...LON 41637509 41297423 41107413 40867435 40917498 41307577 ####018001203#### PENA01 KWNH 121200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12120626@@0NMCGPHMPD$@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@}}|}~@@@@@@=D~}}}}}||{{{zzz{{}}}}~}~~~~@@D@@D@@D}|{|zzzzzzz{zztzh{||y{|}~ ~|@@@@@@>n|||}|}~~}}~}~~~~~||z|z{{@@n@@n@@0385 @@0386 @@0387 @@0388 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 06/12/2026 0059Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @