####018000595#### PENA01 KWNH 101200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12100326@@0NMCGPHMPDP@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@|NO MDs ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 03/10/2026 2100Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @####018002533#### AWUS01 KWNH 102104 FFGMPD TXZ000-110300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0055 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 503 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Areas affected...Hill Country into Central TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 102103Z - 110300Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be developing and expanding in coverage going through the evening hours. High rainfall rates capable of exceeding 2 inches/hour along with some periodic cell-training concerns will support a threat for some areas of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E WV suite shows a well-defined southern stream closed low and associated mid-level trough ejecting across northern Mexico. This energy will be gradually crossing the Rio Grande Valley going into the evening hours, but will be interacting with a very moist and unstable airmass pooled across large areas of central TX, including the Hill Country. MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are already in place across the region with effective bulk shear values of as much as 40 to 50 kts. Already CI appears to be underway based on the latest satellite and radar data west of a line from Del Rio to San Angelo. As the upstream shortwave energy gradually arrives, and what is left of the warm mid-level CAP erodes, convection should expand rather rapidly near and to the east of a dryline. A combination of multicells and supercells are expected within an anomalously moist environment characterized by PWs of 1.25+ inches, with these values running about 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of the year. Rainfall rates will be capable of locally exceeding 2 inches/hour with the stronger and more organized convective cells, and some upscale growth into an elongated MCS is generally expected by later this evening. This will be supported by a convergent low-level jet reaching 30 to 40+ kts. Some cell-mergers and periodic cell-training can be expected, with some localized swaths of 2 to 4 inches of rain possible. These rains will pose a threat for isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding given the high rainfall rates and locally sensitive terrain. Orrison ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC... LAT...LON 33039909 32909793 31959754 30329885 29430014 29290111 29920205 30890183 32310052 ####018000725#### PENA01 KWNH 101200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12100326@@0NMCGPHMPDP@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@;?;{{|||}~}}~}||zy|{{zzz{z|@@?;@@?;@@20055 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 03/10/2026 2104Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @