####018002482#### AWUS01 KWNH 111656 FFGMPD TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-112245- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0672 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1255 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Areas affected...northern AR into the MS and lower OH River Valleys Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 111653Z - 112245Z SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms are expected to setup across portions of northern AR into the MS and lower OH Valleys during the afternoon. Peak hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher) is expected. Flash flooding may result, especially if there is overlap with areas that recently received heavy rain over southeastern MO into the lower OH Valley. DISCUSSION...1630Z radar/visible satellite showed a small band of showers/thunderstorms along the eastern MO/AR border with scattered clouds and developing Cu extending westward along a frontal boundary located near the western MO/AR border. This region of lift was focused within a zone of low level confluence located south of a low to mid-level low near Saint Louis, MO. Earlier rainfall and cloud cover over southeastern MO has setup a wavy gradient in MLCAPE that was aligned generally west to east, near the MO/AR border into western KY/TN. The 16Z SPC mesoanalysis showed about 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE to the south of the more stable air over southern MO along with PWs of 1.9 to 2.1 inches, capable of high short term rain rates. As the low to mid-level low near Saint Louis advances southeastward toward southern IL through the afternoon, enhanced low level confluence is forecast to setup from northern AR into western KY and western TN. Mean steering flow will align with this axis of confluence which should promote some areas of training, at least initially, as thunderstorm coverage increases. Congealing and outflow generation toward the south is expected within a couple of hours after initiation, but prior to the expected southward propagation of cells, hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher) may result in a few areas of flash flooding. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 37488745 36928669 36148680 35528744 34978904 34709113 35089261 35709354 36519351 36629095 37388862 ####018000929#### PENA01 KWNH 111200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12110726@@0NMCGPHMPDj0@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@D~}}|{{z|{{{}}|}|}}}}~}}~~@@@@@@?[~}}|{zy~}~}}}~~}}~~~~~~~~~@@[@@[@@0671 @@ %0672 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 07/11/2026 1656Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @