####018002368####
AWUS01 KWNH 111754

FFGMPD

WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-112345-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0673

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

153 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026



Areas affected...central IL/IN/OH into northern KY and western WV



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 111751Z - 112345Z



SUMMARY...A fairly broad threat for flash flooding will focus from

the OH River into portions of central IL/IN/OH through the

remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. Hourly rainfall

of 1 to 2+ inches is expected to result in at least widely

scattered instances of flash flooding.



DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing as of 1730Z

from portions of south-central IL into central IN/OH down to the

OH River, located east of a low to mid-level low centered over

south-central IL. Numerous smaller scale vorticity maxima were

observed through loops of visible satellite and radar imagery

across the OH Valley, embedded within a zone of weaker 0-6 km mean

layer winds located from near the south-central IL low into

central IN and much of OH. Daytime heating through breaks in cloud

cover have aided in the development of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across

the OH Valley and points northward where PWs ranged from 1.5 to

2.0 inches via 17Z SPC mesoanalysis data.



Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the next

few hours with peak daytime heating, with embedded regions of slow

moving thunderstorm clusters in the vicinity of smaller scale low

to mid-level vorticity maxima. Slow cell movement within the

favorable environment will allow for hourly rainfall of 1 to 2

inches (locally higher). While coverage should remain widely

scattered, a few 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals are expected through

00Z, with areas of flash flooding likely, especially where soils

are more compromised due to recent heavy rainfall.



Otto



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...LSX...

PAH...PBZ...RLX...



ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...



LAT...LON   41228200 41048133 40108086 39048076 38388118 

            38008214 37928341 37598561 37538715 37728855 

            38068978 38689044 39528963 40228638 41028311