####018002829#### AWUS01 KWNH 161824 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-170022- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0460 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 222 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Areas affected...Southern Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 161822Z - 170022Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be developing and expanding in coverage through the afternoon and into the evening hours across much of the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered areas of flash flooding are likely, which will include concerns for locally considerable urban flooding impacts. DISCUSSION...Surface observations show a quasi-stationary front draped once again across the southern Mid-Atlantic region and into the central Appalachians, with the 18Z METARs showing the front close to the VA/NC border and extending northwest up into eastern WV. Strong diurnal heating along and south of the boundary has allowed for the airmass across especially central and eastern NC to become very unstable with MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg. The low-level flow is very moist and rather convergent with PWs over the eastern half of NC running upwards of 2.0 to 2.25 inches. This coupled with additional surface heating over the next couple of hours along with convergence in close proximity to the front should favor the regional development and expansion of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity over the next few hours which will continue into the evening time frame. Rainfall rates are expected to once again be very high, with rates reaching as high as 2.5 inches/hour given the moist/unstable environment. The convection should tend to be a combination of slow-moving pulse and multi-cell convection, with some localized concerns for cell-training possible. The 12Z HREF supports some rainfall totals by 00Z (8pm EDT) of 3 to 5 inches, and some recent RRFS solutions support this as well. Some areas of central and eastern NC saw rather heavy rainfall totals over the last 24 hours and are relatively sensitive. This combined with the additional rainfall, along with concerns for the more sensitive urban areas, including the Raleigh-Durham metropolitan area, suggests at least scattered areas of flash flooding are likely. Locally considerable urban flooding impacts will be possible going into the early evening hours. Orrison ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK... ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 36997989 36737931 36537842 36427742 36457659 36467588 35947551 35067581 34627769 34767938 35138142 35418218 35828216 36198156 36518094 36898035 ####018001251#### PENA01 KWNH 161200 @UHPISF000CNé MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12160625@@0NMCGPHMPDQ@!' `' ` @ ê¾& êBñ7)p&¬PNAM02@@Aûbƒ|‚z‚zþyþ|ý|û|û{û|û|û|ü~û}üû~û~ûû~ûúú~úúúûüøúýü€„ƒƒ‚ƒ‚ƒ‚ƒ…ƒ…‰………………„†„…„„…„…~„{@@ûb€@@ûb€@@L8!ü}ü~û~ú}ú~ú~ú}ú}û~û|ü}û|û|ü|ü|û|ü}ü}ú|û|û|û~û}üúúüýýÿ‚ƒƒ‚ƒ„„„ƒ„ƒ„„„„ƒ…„„…„…………„†‡……†~…}„|ƒ}‚{{€{zþzüz@@8!€@@8!€@@Akl„„……„…Š…ƒ}ƒ}ƒ}ƒ{‚||z€vÿ{€{þ{ÿzþ{ýzþ|ý{ü{ý{ü{ü{ü{ý|ü|ý}û|û}ûüû~ú~ù~ú~ýÿ‚€€‚‚‚ƒ‚‚ƒ‚‚‚ƒ@@kl€@@kl€@@kËúûûþÿ€‚ƒ……„ƒ||€{{‚{ƒz‚{€|þ~ûû@@kË€@@kË€@@]ó€0457 @@}€0458 @@O€0459 @@ŸQ€0460 @@d&€MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d&þ€ OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d&ü€ TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d&ú€ ISSUED 06/16/2025 1823Z @@ d™€NOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d™þ€ WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d™ü€ FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d™ú€ WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @