####018002547#### AWUS01 KWNH 121313 FFGMPD VAZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-121800- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1022 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 910 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Areas affected...Eastern IN...Western OH...Eastern KY...Eastern TN Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 121310Z - 121800Z Summary...Long lived back building MCS continues to produce widespread heavy rainfall across eastern portions of the Ohio Valley this morning. Additional flash flooding is likely given highly saturated grounds and the expectation of 2-4 inches of rainfall through the midday hours. Discussion...Regional Doppler radars are continuing to depict a back-building MCS currently centered over eastern Indiana this morning that has been nearly stationary for the past several hours. Although recent GOES-E infrared satellite imagery is indicating a slight decrease in the magnitude of the overall convection, it has been a slow change overall and the thermodynamic parameters remain quite favorable for additional back-building convection to develop through the remainder of the morning and into the midday hours. The latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates PWs close to 2 inches near the western boundary of the complex, along with most unstable CAPE values in the 2500-3000 J/kg range just downstream. The outflow boundary that has developed on the western edge of the complex is serving as an excellent lifting mechanism for new convection with 20-30 mph 850mb flow intersecting the boundary, and this is likely to remain the case over the next few hours. The latest CAM guidance suite is quite varied in the possible QPF solutions, but the RRFS appears to have the most realistic depiction with some additional 2-4 inch totals through 18Z. An aggravating factor will be the severely compromised flash flood guidance values across a large portion of eastern Indiana into northern Kentucky, which has been hammered by multiple rounds of heavy rainfall in just the past 12 hours, in some cases exceeding 5 inches. Multiple instances of flash flooding are likely. Hamrick ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX... ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 41128607 41128486 40538397 39528397 38718386 37818346 36938298 35928308 35588397 35738530 36468602 37438641 38338673 39538699 40378682 ####018000917#### PENA01 KWNH 121200 @UHPISF000CNê MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12120826@@0NMCGPHMPDR0@!' `' ` @ ê¾& êBñ7)p&¬PNAM02@@F>ýýþýþþþÿ€ ‚ƒ……†‹†~…~„|ƒ}‚{{z‚|‚{‚{ƒ|‚|ƒ|ƒ|ƒ}„|ƒ}„|ƒ}„}ƒ|ƒ|ƒ|‚z‚{{€|þ{ý|ü|û~û}ûú~úûúûûûýýüþýüýýý@@>€@@>€@@7+yƒ„……†‡‡‡†‡‡…Œ†’††‹…„‡~†}†}„|„||€}þ~þ}ü~û~ú~ø~ø÷Ñùòùùúúûûüü÷ûÿ‚„@@+y€@@+y€@@+y€1021 @@ƒ€1022 @@d&€MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d&þ€ OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d&ü€ TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d&ú€ ISSUED 08/12/2026 1313Z @@ d™€NOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d™þ€ WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d™ü€ FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d™ú€ WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @