####018001928####
AWUS01 KWNH 110144

FFGMPD

NCZ000-SCZ000-110542-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0641

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

943 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025



Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 110142Z - 110542Z



SUMMARY...Complex cell mergers associated with several clusters of

ongoing convection are contributing to the possibility of isolated

flash flooding.



DISCUSSION...Several clusters of convection are ongoing across

eastern North Carolina in an environment of weak deep-layer mean

flow of 10-15 knots out of the west-southwest. As a result,

erratic storm motions are being driven by the complex interactions

of mesoscale cold pools. Although peak daytime heating has passed,

MLCAPE is still in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Furthermore, as the

500 mb shortwave trough axis rotates through, the convection is

likely to sustain itself for a few more hours.



The atmosphere is still extremely moist with the 00Z MHX sounding

indicating a PW value of 2.18", which exceeds the 90th percentile

relative to climatology. This pool of moisture across eastern

North Carolina and the Outer Banks is well represented by the CAMs

guidance, and HREF 3-hr QPF probabilities of exceeding 2" is

40-50% for the region, with probabilities of exceeding the 6-hour

flash flood guidance at 25-40%. These values suggest that although

the dynamics are not conducive for a sustained, widespread threat

of flash flooding, the slow storm motions, erratic cell mergers,

and high moisture content suggest that there is at least an

isolated flash flood risk.



Shieh



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH...



ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...



LAT...LON   36277616 35197542 34117702 33717882 34167944 

            35187911 35967786