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FNUS22 KWNS 051957

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024



Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...



No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. 



Though no Extremely Critical areas were added with this outlook,

hi-res guidance from the HREF continues to show around 10-30%

probability of Extremely Critical conditions across the northern

Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle into far southeastern Colorado.

Deterministic models continue to show significant spread in wind

speeds and minimum relative humidity but it seems likely that

localized Extremely Critical conditions will be possible, mainly

across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. Should

confidence increase in more widespread conditions, an Extremely

Critical may be needed with the upcoming transition to D1.



..Thornton.. 04/05/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/



...Synopsis...

The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on

Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and

southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the

central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level

wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region.

The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through

the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing

east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this

occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air

mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains.

Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH

reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions

of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high

confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the

typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums

are possible. 



Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph)

by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient

and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35

mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be

located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This

region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire

weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an

Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus

for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded

higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated

with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low

(up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details

should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame.

Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after

warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the

high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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