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FNUS22 KWNS 161835

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0134 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026



Valid 171200Z - 181200Z



The Elevated area over the southern Plains was adjusted slightly

eastward to align with the latest forecast guidance. Locally

critical conditions will be possible over portions of the Texas

Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma during the Day 2/Tuesday time

frame. Additionally, this lack of moisture recovery will effectively

extend the burn period and pre-condition fuels prior to the arrival

of the strongest synoptic winds on Day 2/Tuesday afternoon.



Farther west and north, an additional Elevated fire weather area has

been introduced across north-central New Mexico, the eastern

Colorado plains, and adjacent segments of the central High Plains.

This region will experience sustained west-to-northwest winds near

15-20 mph with RHs of 15-20%. While northern portions of this risk

area may struggle to meet strict RH thresholds, the proximity to the

upper-level jet suggests these areas will see the highest wind

magnitudes, likely compensating for the marginal humidity.



..Stearns/Williams.. 03/16/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026/



...Synopsis...

A period of Elevated fire weather concerns will return on D2/Tuesday

across the southern Plains. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the

northern/central Rockies, with lee troughing strengthening across

the northern/central High Plains. Strengthening southwest winds will

extend into the Southern Plains where a residual dry air mass will

promote an increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west

TX and western OK. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20%

will overlap sustained south southwesterly winds 10-15 mph. A

corridor of near Critical to Critical conditions may be possible

within this broader Elevated. For now, confidence in coverage of

critical winds is too low to include an area at this time, given low

combined probabilities from ensemble guidance from the HREF.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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