####018002677####
FNUS22 KWNS 151840

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0139 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021



Valid 161200Z - 171200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW

MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...



The primary change to the ongoing forecast is to expand the

elevated/critical areas westward into more of southern New Mexico.

With the shortwave trough trending slower in guidance, these areas

are likely to see very windy and drier conditions longer than

previously expected. The potential for extremely critical

meteorological conditions still exists within an axis from the

Trans-Pecos and northward along the NM/TX border. Fuels, despite

ongoing drought, are only on the margins for extreme fire weather

risk. This is especially true with eastward extent. The latest

TICC/SWCC fuels information shows ERCs generally below the 70th

percentile as well as below normal grass fuel loads within the area

of greatest concern. Combined with the duration of extreme

conditions being potentially short, an upgrade does not appear

warranted.



..Wendt.. 03/15/2021



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021/



...Synopsis...

A compact upper low near the Four Corners will rapidly intensify and

eject eastward across the southern Rockies through Day2/Tuesday. At

the surface, lee cyclogenesis will take place across the Texas

Panhandle in the afternoon as a sub-1000 mb low is expected to

develop by 00z Day3/Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions are

likely to the southwest of the developing lee low where strong

winds, warm temperatures, and low RH are forecast to overlap.



...Southern High Plains...

In response to the strong mid-level jet streak moving overhead and

rapid lee cyclogenesis, boundary-layer flow is forecast to increase

quickly through the morning hours. Peak winds during the afternoon

of 25-45 mph are expected within the warm/dry airmass across

southern New Mexico and west Texas. Widespread critical RH of 10 to

15% is expected through the afternoon. Widespread elevated and

critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop given ample

fine fuels.



Some questions remain on the eastward extent of the critical and

elevated conditions into west Texas. Warm temperatures are forecast,

but moistening return flow and weaker overall winds will likely

hamper more widespread fire weather potential. Nonetheless, locally

elevated/critical conditions may develop east of the current

delineated area through the day.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$