####018002980####
FNUS22 KWNS 121935

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0234 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024



Valid 131200Z - 141200Z



No changes to the ongoing forecast. Critical meteorological

conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Texas

Panhandle/South Plains. Given recent rainfall and reports of some

greening grasses, a categorical upgrade to Critical does not seem

warranted at this time. Critical conditions also appear possible

near the KS/CO border. Deterministic and ensemble guidance generally

depict these conditions occurring only briefly, however.



..Wendt.. 04/12/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/



...Synopsis...

Across the western US, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to

intensify Saturday as a broad upper low moves onshore over the West

Coast and begins to phase with the sub tropical jet. The strong flow

aloft from the intensifying upper low will deepen a lee trough into

a surface low over the northern Plains. The low will bolster surface

winds across the Great Basin and Southwest, while gusty surface

winds will extend eastward to the lee of the Rockies and over much

of the Great Plains. With gusty winds overlapping areas of dry fuels

and warm temperatures, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.



...High Plains...

To the west of the deepening lee trough, gusty west/southwest winds

are expected to increase through the afternoon over parts of eastern

CO, eastern NM, western KS, and the far western TX Panhandle.

Widespread gusts of 20-25 mph are likely, overlapping with minimum

humidity values of 10-20%. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather

concerns are likely, especially over parts of southeastern CO,

western KS and eastern NM, where fuels are driest. Less confidence

exists over part of the TX panhandle and northwest OK. Here, recent

rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. Still, several days of

drying may result in some potential for elevated and critical

fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon.



...Central Plains...

As the lee trough continues to deepen into a broad lee low over the

northern Plains, strong southerly winds are expected across much of

the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the returning moisture,

sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected Saturday. While RH values

may not reach nominal diurnal minimums, widespread RH below 30% is

still likely. In combination with increasingly warm temperatures and

very dry fuels, the gusty winds and marginally dry surface

conditions should support at least a few hours of elevated

fire-weather potential across parts of central/eastern KS into

southern NE. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible

farther east into portions of MO, though lesser confidence in

sustained winds and fuels exists here.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$