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FNUS22 KWNS 062004

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0304 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024



Valid 071200Z - 081200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWESTERN

TEXAS...



The D2 Critical was expanded further south into southwestern Texas

with this update. Hi-res guidance from the HREF indicates a 70-80%

likelihood of Critical conditions extending into this region. In

addition, the Elevated was expanded slightly eastward into western

Oklahoma to account for the likelihood of Elevated fire weather

conditions. Fuels in both of the updated regions have experienced

rapid drying in the last 24-48 hours and will support the risk of

fire spread.



See previous discussion for more information.



..Thornton.. 04/06/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/



...Synopsis...

Although the fire weather environment won't be as extreme compared

to Saturday, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are

anticipated again Sunday across much of the central to southern High

Plains. The lee cyclone that is beginning to gradually deepen early

Saturday morning along the High Plains is forecast to quickly

occlude overnight Saturday into Sunday. This low will drift across

NE, reaching the MO River by Sunday evening. The slow departure of

the low, combined with a lingering belt of strong mid-level flow,

will maintain 15-25 mph winds across the High Plains and southern

Plains. 



By Sunday afternoon, much of this region will have been under a

westerly downslope flow regime for 12-24 hours, which will greatly

limit overnight RH recovery and promote afternoon RH minimums

between 10-20%. A recent uptick in wildfire activity over the past

24 hours indicates that fuels are receptive, and very dry/windy

conditions on Saturday will further prime fuels. Consequently,

widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear

likely. Confidence in sustained critical conditions remains highest

across eastern NM to western TX where flow emanating off the central

NM terrain will see the greatest RH reductions to 10-15%, co-located

with 20-25 mph winds. 



Some uncertainty is noted regarding the northern and eastern extent

of the fire weather risk area. Across the central Plains, guidance

is fairly inconsistent in the timing and placement of a weak,

southward migrating cold front. Across eastern OK, AR, and MO, a dry

air mass will likely overspread the region with breezy winds;

however, there is poor ensemble consensus regarding RH minimums and

maximum wind speeds. The potential for elevated conditions is noted

and further refinements are possible as these details become more

clear.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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