####018002102#### FNUS22 KWNS 131831 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are expected again on Sunday across a broad swath of the Four Corners region with more concentrated areas of elevated conditions across the southern High Plains. The upper low currently off the central CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 48 hours, reaching the lower CO River Valley region by late Sunday. This will result in surface pressure falls across much of the intermountain West with an accompanying uptick in low-level winds. Widespread fire weather conditions are anticipated across much of the Four Corners region, but fuel analyses suggest that most fuels are currently not receptive. A weaker low-level mass response is anticipated further east across the southern High Plains, but corridors of dry/windy conditions are anticipated over areas with receptive fuels. ...Southeast NM to the southern Permian Basin... Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show the potential for pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across NM into adjacent areas of western TX and southern CO. However, the most consistent signal among all solutions appears to be across southeast NM into the southern Permian Basin where 15-20 mph winds and RH in the single digits to low teens are expected. This signal is likely attributable to topographical influences with enhanced downslope warming/drying in the lee of the Guadelupe Mountains within a modest west/southwesterly flow regime. Dry grasses across this region should support the fire weather concern, and fuel guidance will be monitored across the Four Corners region given the relatively higher confidence for elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$