####018000271#### FNUS38 KWNS 192152 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026 VALID TIME 211200Z - 271200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... && ####018002773#### FNUS28 KWNS 192152 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... The upper level trough contributing to ongoing fire weather risk will move onshore and weaken as it traverses the Great Plains. This transitions the western states into a brief period of zonal flow aloft, though embedded shortwave troughs will continue to provide impactful fire weather conditions, before ridging returns to the Intermountain West. This pattern will reinforce unseasonably warm, dry conditions and accelerate fuel drying across the region. However, if the high persists long enough into the next week as is currently indicated by forecast guidance, moisture will likely begin to advect north and eastward over AZ and NM. Conversely, expansive troughing will dominate the Northeast, sending periodic cold fronts and widespread precipitation across the eastern United States to suppress regional fire threats there. ...Day 3/Sunday... ...Southwest and northern Great Basin... As the aforementioned mid level shortwave trough moves through the Intermountain West and over the Great Plains, it will support lee surface troughing which will enhance surface winds across portions of the Southwest. Specifically, over western NM and far eastern AZ, where dry westerly winds will coincide with critically dry fuels, an area of 40 percent probability of Critical wind/RH remains in place. Under a well mixed surface boundary layer, much of the Snake River Plain over ID will also experience dry and windy conditions, necessitating a targeted 40 percent probability of Critical wind/RH there as well. ...Day 5/Tuesday... ...Southwest and southern Great Basin... As high pressure builds over the Southwest, hot and dry surface conditions will promote deep boundary layer mixing, contributing to increased westerly surface winds. As such, an area of 40 percent probability of Critical wind/RH was introduced over portions of northern AZ and far southern UT. ...Day 6/Wednesday... ...Southwest... Persistent high pressure over the Southwest will eventually lead to increasing moisture wrapped in from the Gulf of California. It appears that this moisture begins to reach eastern AZ and western NM by mid next week. As is typical with this pattern, hot and dry air at the surface will lag increasing moisture aloft, leading to high based thunderstorms. Expect adjustments in time/space with future forecast issuances as the timing and placement of this potential moisture becomes more clear. ..Stearns.. 06/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$