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FNUS21 KWNS 141643

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1142 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024



Valid 141700Z - 151200Z



No changes to the ongoing forecast.



..Wendt.. 04/14/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/



...Synopsis...

A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly

drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong

mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the

Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western

CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central

Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will

slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low

humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated

fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains.



...Southern High Plains...

As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow

aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains.

The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over

northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee

trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of

15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into

west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee

trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH

minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few

hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized

fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO.

However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty

winds more localized.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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