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FNUS22 KWNS 141905

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0204 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024



Valid 151200Z - 161200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH

PLAINS...



The critical area has been expanded based on the latest guidance. RH

in the single digits appears likely for a broad portion of the

regions. The potential for extremely critical fire weather remains

across northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado and parts of

western Kansas. Duration of these conditions will be the primary

uncertainty as the most favorable overlap of synoptic features may

only be brief.



There is some potential for elevated fire weather in parts of

northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota. Dry air is in place

in the upper Midwest and winds will increase ahead of a lifting warm

front prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight.

With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally

dry fuels (drier fuels exist to the southwest), the threat may

remain localized.



..Wendt.. 04/14/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/



...Synopsis...

An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and

eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies D2/Monday. As

large-scale ascent from the approaching upper low and jet streak

move over the Plains, a lee low should quickly emerge and begin to

rapidly deepen over central High Plains. Surface pressure falls and

the strong flow aloft will aid in developing strong surface winds

over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying

fuels will set the stage for widespread critical and localized

extremely critical fire-weather conditions D2/Monday.



...High Plains...

As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt

mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies. The

rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow

downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near

100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible

behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced

momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are

also expected to be critically low, falling to near 10% over much of

the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with

strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support

ubiquitous critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and

western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX.

Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as

strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and

evening hours. The most likely corridor for localized extreme

conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS

and the northwestern Panhandles. Here, the overlap of the strongest

flow aloft and the low-level thermal ridge may support occasional

surface wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and single digit RH for a few

hours during the afternoon.



While critical fire-weather concerns are likely over a broad area,

substantial uncertainty is present with the eastward extent of

fire-weather concerns. NWP guidance, with relation to the position

of the dryline, has shown large errors in recent weeks and spread

among various solutions remains large. Further refinement of the

eastern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas is likely needed in

future outlooks.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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