####018002147####
FNUS28 KWNS 182054

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0352 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021



Valid 201200Z - 261200Z



A strong upper-low off the Northwest coast will weaken and become a

broad trough over the West by the end of this weekend. With time, a

shortwave trough is anticipated to evolve within the base of the

parent trough and impact the Southwest and southern Plains early

next week. Models have continued to struggle with handling the speed

of and moisture with this early-week shortwave. Recent trends have

the ECMWF shifting toward the drier GFS solution. By mid-week model

variability increases again with some semblance of a broad central

U.S. upper-level trough with embedded shortwave troughs the general

pattern forecast. At the surface, a Pacific front will accompany the

initial trough. Precipitation will be possible as it emerges onto

the High Plains, though some areas are likely to remain dry.



...Southwest/Southern High Plains...

As the trough approaches on Saturday/Sunday, mid-level winds will

increase from the west. Weak cyclogenesis may lead to areas of

elevated fire weather across parts of eastern Arizona into New

Mexico. Cloud cover and a weak surface response to the trough will

limits confidence in critical conditions. For Monday, strong winds

ahead of a cold front and behind a dryline will bring potential for

critical fire weather in southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos.

With RH potentially in the single digits, 40% probabilities have

been added. The remaining uncertainty will be the position of the

boundaries as well as precipitation that may occur along the surface

trough/dryline.



With the evolution of the upper-level pattern and surface features

becoming less clear for Tuesday and beyond, critical fire weather

becomes less certain. However, there is some possibility that

dry/windy northwesterly winds continue behind the front in parts of

the southern High Plains into midweek.



..Wendt.. 03/18/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 182054

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0352 PM CDT THU MAR 18 2021



VALID TIME 201200Z - 261200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



&&