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FNUS38 KWNS 302146

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0344 PM CST MON DEC 30 2024



VALID TIME 011200Z - 071200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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FNUS28 KWNS 302146

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0344 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024



Valid 011200Z - 071200Z



An upper-level ridge will build over the West late Day 3/Wednesday

into Day 5/Friday while an upper-level trough deepens over the

eastern US. An upper-level trough is forecast to move over the West

late Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday then over the southern and

central Plains on Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday. Dry conditions

will persist for much of the southwest US and southern/central High

Plains through the outlook period. 



...Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday: Southern California...

A relatively isolated weak to moderate Santa Ana wind event will

continue across of the Transverse Ranges into Day 4/Thursday

evening. Locally critical winds/RH remain likely in the mountains

and adjacent foothills of Ventura and western Los Angeles Counties,

mostly on southern/ocean facing slopes. 40% probabilities have been

maintained, but a Day 1/2 Critical area cannot be ruled out in

future outlooks. 



Another Santa Ana wind event is possible starting on Day 7/Sunday

and lasting through early next week. Forecast uncertainty precludes

adding probabilities at this time, but if model trends hold,

probabilities will be necessary in future outlooks. 



...Day 6/Saturday - Day 7/Sunday: Southwest and southern High

Plains...

The trough forecast to move over the West on Day 5/Friday - Day

6/Saturday will likely lead to elevated/locally critical fire

weather conditions across portions of the Southwest and southern

High Plains on Day 6/Saturday - Day 7/Sunday. The timing and track

of the upper-level trough are still somewhat uncertain, but the last

few model runs seem to be coalescing around a solution. Future

outlooks will likely introduce probabilities for critical fire

weather this weekend across portions of the Southwest and southern

High Plains.



..Nauslar.. 12/30/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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