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FNUS21 KWNS 160658

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024



Valid 161200Z - 171200Z



...Synopsis...

The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift

north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the

low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet

shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline

will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the

southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over

the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather

conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains.



..Southern Plains...

Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low

moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly

flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern

NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through

part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the

strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in

duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally

critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given

widespread dry fuels.



Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther

east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the

afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain

possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward.

However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface

conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on

precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be

brief and localized.



...Northern High Plains...

Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and

adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves

into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal

environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with

gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather

conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly

unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will

remain more localized.



..Lyons.. 04/16/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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