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FNUS21 KWNS 201628

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1128 AM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021



Valid 201700Z - 211200Z



The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions

made. Locally Critical conditions still appear possible across

portions of central New Mexico. However, the brief and localized

nature of the Critical conditions as well as the conditional

receptiveness of fuels to fire spread preclude Critical highlights.



..Squitieri.. 03/20/2021



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Sat Mar 20 2021/



...Synopsis...

A positive tilt, long-wave trough will emerge across the

Intermountain West and northern High Plains over the course of the

forecast period.  This wave will encourage lee troughing and

strengthening of low-level wind fields from the Texas/New Mexico

High Plains north-northeastward to the Upper Midwest.  Despite

trajectories that would ordinarily favor moisture advection, dry air

remaining in the wake of the prior system will allow for areas of

elevated fire-weather conditions to develop especially across the

southern Rockies/Plains and portions of the upper Midwest.



...Southern Rockies/Plains...

Steepening surface pressure gradient associated with lee troughing

will allow for several areas of 15-25 mph surface winds across broad

areas of New Mexico and southeastern Colorado.  This flow will occur

within a dry airmass, with areas of critically low RH values

developing for a few hours during peak heating, though most areas

should only flirt with 15% RH values based on latest model progs. 

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible where

fuels are dry, though some areas in the High Plains have experienced

wetting precipitation recently that may render fuel states

unfavorable for large fires.



...Iowa, Wisconsin, and eastern Minnesota...

This region will reside on the eastern extent of stronger wind

fields across the northern/central Plains.  Nevertheless, areas of

15-25 mph surface winds (strongest in Iowa) are expected to develop

over the course of the afternoon and RH values fall into the 20-30%

range.  Where fuels are dry, elevated fire weather is expected.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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