####018001267####
FNUS21 KWNS 170605

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025



Valid 171200Z - 181200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...



...Synopsis...

A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is

forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the

morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee

cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical

conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far

West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. 



...Southern New Mexico...

As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the

southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH

coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are

anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in

portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of

Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance

indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values,

warranting only Elevated highlights at this time.



..Halbert.. 05/17/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018001513####
FNUS22 KWNS 170606

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025



Valid 181200Z - 191200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR

WESTERN TEXAS...



...Synopsis...

On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is

forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the

southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening

dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread

Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far

West Texas. 



...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 

As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the

dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10%

relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid

wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding

the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the

00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though

there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any

Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas,

meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold --

however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below

average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this

time.



..Halbert.. 05/17/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$