####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 212116

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0414 PM CDT SUN MAR 21 2021



VALID TIME 231200Z - 291200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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####018002089####
FNUS28 KWNS 212116

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0414 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021



Valid 231200Z - 291200Z



Broad cyclonic flow will dominate the upper pattern through Day

6/Friday across the southwest into south-central CONUS, where

multiple embedded mid-level impulses and associated surface

lee-troughs/cyclones are expected to cross. Thereafter, an upper

ridge builds in across the western CONUS Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday,

promoting quiescent fire weather conditions. From Days 3-6, modest

wildfire-spread potential may be observed in the post-dryline

environment given anticipated surface low development across

portions of the southern High Plains. Elsewhere across the CONUS,

dry conditions are expected to persist across portions of the

northern High Plains and Florida Peninsula, where lack of

appreciable rainfall will serve to cure fuels to a degree. The lack

of stronger surface winds will be the primary limiting factor for a

greater wildfire-spread threat across these regions over the next

week.



...Days 3-6/Southern High Plains...

A mid-level impulse will overspread the southern High Plains as the

mid-level impulse responsible for Day 2 Fire concerns ejects from

the region. A dryline is expected to surge eastward on Day 3/Tuesday

across western Texas, fostering modestly dry and breezy conditions,

warranting 40% Critical probabilities across southern New Mexico

into Far West Texas. Medium range guidance also shows multiple

mid-level impulses glancing the southern High Plains to the north

Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday, with a dryline advancing eastward across

the southern High Plains each day during the afternoon. The

relatively weaker upper support compared to previous days is

expected to result in weaker surface winds, with medium range

guidance also trending downward in surface wind speeds, precluding

Critical probabilities at this time.



..Squitieri.. 03/21/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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