####018001267#### FNUS21 KWNS 170605 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ ####018001513#### FNUS22 KWNS 170606 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$