####018002769####
FNUS28 KWNS 112153

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0351 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026



Valid 131200Z - 191200Z



Very active upper and mid-level flow will persist across CONUS

through the extended forecast period. An upper trough and associated

surface low will move from the southern High Plains early Day

4/Saturday eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through

Day 5/Sunday. Another upper-level trough enters the West on Day

6/Monday, progressing east over the Central and Southern High

Plains. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is expected this

weekend and possibly early next week, given the strong mid-level

flow and increasing western US troughing. 



...Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley: Day 4/Saturday...

Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop Day 4/Saturday

afternoon/evening as the mid/upper-level trough impinges on the area

and an associated surface low strengthens over the Southern Plains.

Uncertainties remain regarding precipitation placement on Day

1/Wednesday and also Day 4/Saturday. Ensemble guidance continues to

suggest a relative minimum in precipitation across portions of South

Texas into the Rio Grande Valley. The aforementioned area could see

RH values between 15-25 percent and west-northwesterly surface winds

of 15-25 mph. A 40% probability of Critical fire weather conditions

will be maintained where the dry and breezy conditions will likely

overlap dry fuels. 



...Southern and Central High Plains: Day 5/Sunday - Day 6/Monday...

Fire weather conditions may increase across portions of the Southern

and Central High Plains on Day 5/Sunday and Day 6/Monday as a

mid-level trough approaches from the west and a surface lee cyclone

strengthens. Increasing southerly flow and low relative humidity

could support increasing fire weather potential given dry fuels.

There is some uncertainty given the potential for precipitation this

weekend, precluding the introduction of probabilities currently. 



Later in the week (Day 7/Tuesday - Day 8/Wednesday) the secondary

mid-level trough will move from the west across the Rockies into the

Central and Southern High Plains region. Varying model trends and

significant timing differences lend to lower predictability

regarding the evolution of this system. However, the potential

exists for a strong lee-cyclone and downslope flow supporting

Critical fire weather conditions later in the week. Nonetheless,

this is conditional upon fuel moisture given the possibility of

rainfall earlier in the forecast period.



..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/11/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 112153

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0351 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026



VALID TIME 131200Z - 191200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



&&