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FNUS21 KWNS 121533

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1032 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024



Valid 121700Z - 131200Z



No changes to the ongoing forecast.



..Wendt.. 04/12/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/



...Synopsis...

In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east,

transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong

southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation

passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of

the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are

forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and

southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across

parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity

will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather

conditions.



...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado...

As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching

shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly

surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope

trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum

RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of

15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of

elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over

parts of NM and southern CO.



...Texas Rio Grande Valley...

To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest

to increase through much of the day with the approach of the

upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place

behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected

over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic

surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%

may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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