####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 262128

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0427 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026



VALID TIME 281200Z - 031200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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####018002664####
FNUS28 KWNS 262128

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0427 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026



Valid 281200Z - 031200Z



...Synopsis...

An upper-level low will remain over the Great Basin on Day

3/Thursday before evolving into an open wave Day 4/Friday and

ejecting into Northern Rockies by Day 5/Saturday. The trough and

associated stronger south to southwest flow will support ongoing

fire weather concerns through Day 4/Friday. Forecast confidence

remains high for a persistent blocking ridge encompassing the

central U.S., northward into the Hudson Bay. Upper troughing east of

the ridge should keep a low fire weather threat amid below normal

temperatures across the Northeast through early next week. Deep

low-level moisture across the Southeast and Southern Plains will

bolster a heavier rainfall potential as a series of diffuse

mid-level waves traverse the southern U.S. through early next week. 





...Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday - Eastern Great Basin and Southwest...

Broad southwesterly flow associated with the slow moving upper low

over the Great Basin will sustain a fire weather threat for portions

of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest on Day 3/Thursday. South

winds 15-20 mph and RH around 15% combined with drier lower

elevation fuels should promote at least elevated fire weather

conditions during the afternoon. Some modifications were made to the

existing 40% critical probability area owing to recent rainfall

across eastern AZ into western NM.



...Day 3/Thursday - Northeastern Montana...

Dry southeasterly flow over the northern High Plains ahead of a

persistent surface trough across central MT, will support another

day of enhanced fire weather concerns across northeastern MT on Day

3/Thursday. 40% critical probabilities have been introduced to

northeastern MT where receptive fuels are still present within

pockets of green up.



...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday...

Longer term forecast guidance suggests a muted fire weather threat

across CONUS over the weekend into early next week. Diminishing

winds across the Intermountain West are expected in the wake of the

exiting upper-level trough. Under the blocking ridge over the

central U.S., dominant surface high pressure over the Great Lakes

and Upper Midwest should promote light winds and a reduced fire

weather concern. However, dry conditions and warming temperatures

will continue to dry fuels across much of north-central CONUS

through the weekend.



..Williams.. 05/26/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$