####018000271#### FNUS38 KWNS 222018 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT MON MAR 22 2021 VALID TIME 241200Z - 301200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... && ####018003099#### FNUS28 KWNS 222018 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Broad cyclonic flow aloft will dominate the upper pattern across the southern Plains through Day 6/Saturday, before mid-level ridging builds into the central CONUS Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Multiple mid-level perturbations pivoting around the cyclonic upper flow regime are expected to encourage periods of surface low development, which in turn will foster moist low-level conditions and periods of appreciable precipitation accumulations from the Southern/Central Plains to the Atlantic Seaboard, tempering wildfire concerns for most areas east of the Mississippi River. Meaningful precipitation accumulations are also expected across the Interior West, that combined with cooler temperatures will serve to mitigate wildfire-spread conditions. Across the Plains states, occasional bouts of dry and breezy conditions are expected to accompany post-dryline/cold frontal environments. While it is difficult to pinpoint any specific day/regime for Critical wildfire-spread potential with any confidence, a few areas may experience some wildfire-spread concerns this upcoming week. ...Day 5/Friday - Southern High Plains... Mid-range guidance consensus is beginning to depict the development of a surface low across the central High Plains, with an eastward-surging dryline expected across the southern High Plains on Day 5/Friday. Critically dry and breezy conditions are possible behind the dryline, though more guidance consistency is desired before Critical probabilities are introduced. ...Day 5/Friday - Mid Atlantic... Mid-range guidance shows a cold front approaching the eastern seaboard on Day 5/Friday, with relatively dry breezy flow accompanying the post-cold front environment. While fuel receptiveness is a bit unclear given the 0.5-1.0 inch precipitation accumulations within the past week, more appreciable accumulations are not likely to arrive until another approaching surface low/cold front traverses the region during the weekend. As such, it is possible that the aforementioned cold frontal environment may support localized wildfire spread Friday afternoon. ...Day 6-8/Saturday-Monday - Northern Plains... Fuels will continue to dry up to the Day 6-8/Saturday-Monday period across the northern Plains given the lack of appreciable accumulated/forecast rainfall. Multiple cold frontal intrusions are possible Saturday-Monday, accompanied by dry downslope flow along the lee of the northern Rockies. While questions remain regarding how low RH will drop, potentially critically dry/breezy conditions may accompany the cold frontal passages. Critical probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks when greater detail regarding frontal placement can be determined, along with magnitudes of minimum surface RH. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$