####018000487#### FNUS38 KWNS 032120 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CST FRI JAN 03 2025 VALID TIME 051200Z - 111200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... D6 34101877 34181904 34411933 34521932 34571883 34591860 34581844 34521815 34471797 34351775 34291772 34211770 34151783 34201802 34231819 34281831 34311843 34301857 34111865 34101877 && ####018002163#### FNUS28 KWNS 032120 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to primarily be focused along the southern California coast during the middle of the upcoming work week as a strong upper trough translates across the southwestern CONUS. Elsewhere, a combination of cool conditions, precipitation chances, and/or poor fuel status limits confidence in additional fire weather concerns. ...D5/Tue to D7/Thu - southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to depict the rapid amplification of an upper trough over the southern Great Basin/West Coast during the D5/Tue to D6/Wed time frame. A combination of an unseasonably strong surface high (near the 90th percentile for early Jan) across the northern Great Basin in the wake of the amplifying wave and increasing north/northeasterly mid/upper-level flow will promote increasing offshore winds along the southern CA coast. Latest deterministic solutions hint that the onset of the offshore flow regime may be as early as Tuesday morning and could last well into Thursday night with a peak in intensity sometime on Wednesday. This pattern is typical of past critical fire weather regimes and likewise will feature fire weather concerns, including the potential for high-end critical conditions. Global deterministic solutions show reasonably good agreement in the passage of the mid-level jet max on D6/Wed, which aligns well with recent GEFS/ECENS ensemble means, and will likely coincide with peak offshore winds and maximum downslope warming/drying. As such, confidence in critical fire weather conditions is sufficiently high to introduce higher, 70% risk probabilities for D6/Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions remain possible on D5/Tue through late D7/Thu, and higher risk probabilities may be required in subsequent forecasts as confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$