####018002719#### FNUS21 KWNS 041549 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...New Mexico... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and trends in recent guidance. 15 UTC surface observations show single-digit dewpoints across western NM and eastern AZ (near the 10th percentile for early January). Additionally, 12 UTC RAOBs sampled very dry conditions (10-15% RH) within the lowest 1 km above the nocturnal inversion. The combination of eastward dry air advection and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will support widespread RH values in the teens across much of NM. Widespread 15-25 mph winds remain likely across the state, though the strongest winds will likely reside across northwest to north-central NM as the mid-level jet max passes overhead late this afternoon. Based on these trends, critical to widespread elevated fire weather conditions remain likely. See the previous discussion for additional details. ...Carolinas... Dry conditions are noted in recent surface observations with afternoon RH minimums in the 20s likely from eastern GA into SC and NC. 10-15 mph winds this morning are expected to abate through the day amid gradual surface pressure rises. While a few locations may see periodic elevated fire weather conditions, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and sufficiently dry RH appears too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$