####018001782#### FNUS22 KWNS 041926 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley in southern TX. Latest guidance has trended towards more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southern TX in the wake of the early-morning frontal passage. Given the dry air mass currently upstream across NM, the signal for RH values in the teens and 50-70% probabilities for reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds depicted in recent ensemble guidance appears reasonable despite the expectation of falling temperatures. ERCs remain fairly high across southern TX, but persistent drought conditions have resulted in dry fine (1 and 10-hour) dead fuels, which should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$