####018000271#### FNUS38 KWNS 232201 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 PM CDT TUE MAR 23 2021 VALID TIME 251200Z - 311200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... && ####018003147#### FNUS28 KWNS 232201 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A progressive upper pattern will dominate the CONUS through the Days 3-8 period. Multiple embedded mid-level shortwaves and associated surface cyclones are expected to promote moist conditions and accumulating rainfall across much of the central and eastern CONUS, reducing significant wildfire-spread potential to a degree. Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely across portions of the Plains states into the southwest in conjunction with passing upper-level disturbances. However, medium range model guidance members depict considerable disagreement with the placement and timing of mid-level troughs, reducing confidence in pinpointing more specific areas likely to experience episodes of favorable surface fire-weather conditions. Portions of the Florida Peninsula may also experience several days in a row of near critically dry surface RH during the afternoon. While fuels will continue to dry across the Florida Peninsula, guidance depicts weak wind speeds, precluding Critical probabilities. ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday - Portions of southern into western Texas... As the first in a series of mid-level troughs and associated surface cyclones traverses the south-central U.S Day 3/Thursday, dry and breezy conditions are expected in both a post-frontal environment across far southern Texas, and with relatively dry downslope flow across western Texas. At the moment, guidance consensus is strongest in critically dry and breezy conditions across far south Texas during the mid-afternoon hours, with 40% Critical probabilities introduced. While probabilities have not been delineated across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas Day 3/Thursday, Elevated/Critical highlights may be introduced in Day 1/2 Outlooks if greater consensus in overlapping favorable surface winds/RH is achieved. Guidance is in greater agreement of critically dry and breezy conditions accompanying a passing mid-level impulse/developing surface cyclone over portions of western Texas Day 4/Friday, with 40% Critical probabilities introduced. ...Day 6/Sunday - Northern Plains... Medium-range guidance shows widespread dry and breezy conditions across much of the northern High Plains into the Dakotas on Day 6/Sunday. This region has been relatively devoid of meaningful precipitation accumulations for over a month, with no additional accumulations forecast through the weekend. While Critical probabilities would typically be introduced for this scenario, model disagreement in the placement and timing of upper support precludes probabilities at this time. However, Critical probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks if guidance can reach a consensus for the placement/timing of an approaching upper trough and associated deepening surface low in Saskatchewan. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$