####018000487####
FNUS38 KWNS 042134

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0332 PM CST SAT JAN 04 2025



VALID TIME 061200Z - 121200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D5     34101877 34181904 34411933 34521932 34571883 34591860

       34581844 34521815 34471797 34351775 34291772 34211770

       34151783 34201802 34231819 34281831 34311843 34301857

       34111865 34101877

&&

####018002537####
FNUS28 KWNS 042134

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0332 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025



Valid 061200Z - 121200Z



Fire weather concerns through next week will primarily be focused

along the southern CA coast where a prolonged offshore wind event is

expected Tuesday through late Thursday. Elsewhere across the

country, cool temperatures, widespread precipitation chances, and/or

poor fuel status will limit additional fire concerns. 



...Southern California...

Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good

agreement in the amplification of an upper wave over the southern

Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D4/Tuesday. A gradual

east/southeastward shift of the upper trough will maintain strong

north/northeasterly mid/upper-level winds over southern CA. This,

coupled with an unseasonably strong surface high over the northern

Great Basin, will promote strengthening offshore winds along the

southern CA coast. Most long-range ensemble families hint at

light/isolated precipitation chances during the day Tuesday with the

passage of the primary upper trough, but this is not expected to

significantly impact the fire environment as offshore winds begin to

increase through the day. 



Critical fire weather conditions may begin as early as late Tuesday

afternoon with increasing confidence in critical conditions heading

into early Wednesday morning. In general, guidance continues to

suggest that the passage of the mid/upper jet will occur sometime

Wednesday morning when the LAX-DAG gradient should peak between -5

to -7 mb. This should coincide with the strongest offshore winds and

greatest downslope warming/drying in the of the coastal terrain.

Historically, this regime supports critical (even high-end critical)

fire weather conditions, and while confidence in precise wind

speeds/RH reductions is limited at this range, confidence in

critical conditions remains high for Wednesday.



Offshore winds are expected to gradually abate through Thursday into

early Friday, though there is some uncertainty regarding the

cessation of critical fire weather conditions during this period.

Previous risk probabilities are maintained in this outlook given the

aforementioned uncertainties on D4/Tue and D6/Thu, but further

forecast refinements are expected heading into next week.



..Moore.. 01/04/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$