####018000910#### FNUS38 KWNS 052125 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CST SUN JAN 05 2025 VALID TIME 071200Z - 131200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... D3 34351923 34461928 34601916 34621898 34601868 34581843 34541825 34471806 34351770 34281752 34151733 34041725 33851712 33781710 33621715 33571718 33511731 33501738 33541747 33671759 33811769 33941780 34031786 34101795 34171809 34181816 34211832 34251856 34271880 34281902 34351923 D4 34511811 34441793 34331762 34261746 34071725 33851711 33701711 33591715 33511732 33551747 33641759 33801767 33971777 34101792 34191811 34201828 34221842 34181856 34151867 34121878 34181904 34391933 34531933 34591921 34621896 34611871 34591860 34581844 34511811 && ####018002244#### FNUS28 KWNS 052125 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused along the southern California coast through the extended period as an offshore flow regime becomes established during the middle portion of the work week. Elsewhere across the country, cool/moist conditions will limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Tuesday to D5/Thursday - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a amplifying upper trough over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D3/Tue into late D4/Wed. Surface pressure rises across the northern Great Basin in the wake of this upper wave will promote an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast. Increasing mid/upper-level northeasterly winds will augment flow across the terrain and contribute to the overall magnitude of downslope winds. Substantial warming/drying is anticipated in the lee of the coastal mountains as the offshore flow regime becomes established, and should result in a prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather concerns beginning D3/Tue and persisting into D5/Thu. Recent 15 UTC RAP solutions show offshore winds beginning to increase by around 18 UTC Tuesday, which aligns with a recent trend in global ensembles that depict 850 mb flow strengthening late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This shift towards an earlier onset of strong downslope winds suggests critical fire weather conditions may begin by Tuesday afternoon/evening and warrants an upgrade to 70% risk probabilities. Peak wind speeds (and hence the greatest fire-weather threat) are still anticipated early Wednesday morning when most guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will be strongest. The pressure gradient will gradually abate on Thursday with some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions, but widespread elevated to isolated critical conditions remain likely through at least Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$