####018002999####
FNUS21 KWNS 150703

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024



Valid 151200Z - 161200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL

HIGH PLAINS...



...Synopsis...

An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and

eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low

should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure

falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over

much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels

will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical

fire-weather conditions.



...Southern and central High Plains...

As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt

mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the

afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force

strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a

dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface

winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong

pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow

aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low,

falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and

receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry

surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical

fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of

the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. 



Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as

strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and

evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme

conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS

and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest

TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit

RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on

the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce

any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists

on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and

high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to

capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should

the dryline mix farther east.



...Missouri Valley...

Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of

northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry

air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to

precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these

dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels

and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain

localized.



..Lyons.. 04/15/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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####018001673####
FNUS22 KWNS 150705

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024



Valid 161200Z - 171200Z



...Synopsis...

As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the

Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east.

The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move

eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty

winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the

southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of

critical conditions is uncertain.



...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend...

As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early

D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern

High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly

flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern

NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through

part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a

few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions

still appear likely given widespread dry fuels.



Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther

east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty

winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the

secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and

uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this

threat will be brief and localized.



..Lyons.. 04/15/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$