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FNUS21 KWNS 251603

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1102 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021



Valid 251700Z - 261200Z



The previous forecast remains on track. Clear skies across the

south-central U.S. should continue to foster boundary-layer mixing

and subsequent dry/breezy conditions across portions of far southern

Texas and southern Arizona/New Mexico/Far West Texas. Guidance

however, does trend more moist in the Arizona/New Mexico area,

suggesting that RH will struggle to reach Elevated criteria.

Nonetheless, given very dry fuels and anticipated 20+ mph sustained

west-southwesterly surface winds, the Elevated area has been

maintained. While the cold front has already passed through far

southern Texas, ample boundary-layer heating/mixing should result in

Elevated criteria surface winds/RH overlapping for at least a few

hours this afternoon.



..Squitieri.. 03/25/2021



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021/



...Synopsis...

A vigorous, negative-tilt shortwave will traverse the southern

Plains early in the forecast period before reaching the

mid-Mississippi Valley and eventually Michigan late.  Meanwhile,

another longer-wave trough will become established across the

Southwest.  The overall pattern will maintain a belt of enhanced

flow aloft from the southern Rockies across Texas and on to the Ohio

Valley.  At the surface, cyclogenesis will occur from Arkansas into

Indiana, spreading a relatively dry airmass across portions of deep

south Texas while maintaining dry air across portions of the

southern Rockies.  Another lee trough will organize in the New

Mexico Plains as well during the day.



...Deep South Texas...

Models are less pronounced with lowering surface RH values during

the period of peak wind gusts (15Z-21Z).  Nevertheless, areas of

15-30% RH are likely to develop over the course of the afternoon as

surface temperatures rise into the 80s F.  15-25 mph northwesterly

surface flow will persist through early afternoon before tapering

off, as the deepening low over the middle of the country departs the

region.  Fuels are quite dry, however, and ERCs are relatively high

for this time of year, supporting an elevated fire-weather threat.



...Southeastern Arizona through far west Texas...

Vertical mixing processes beneath strong flow aloft and lee

troughing along the New Mexico Plains will encourage areas of 20-30

mph surface winds in the area through much of the forecast period. 

This flow will occur within an airmass characterized by 15-25% RH

values and among areas of dry fuels in part due to drought.  RH

values will be a bit too high to justify critical highlights,

however.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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