####018002934#### FNUS21 KWNS 071616 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with some modifications made to reflect recent observed trends and 12z guidance. Regional radars show light to moderate precipitation falling across southern CA - mainly on the windward side of the coastal terrain. MRMS QPE suggests most locations on the lee side of the coastal ranges have not received wetting rainfall, so impacts to fuels should remain limited. 16 UTC surface observations show downslope winds beginning to increase with gusts between 40-60 mph becoming more common at higher elevation. As of 16 UTC, cloud cover is modulating the influence of downslope warming/drying with RH values generally above 30%; however, relative humidity is expected to quickly decline by mid/late afternoon as cloud cover/precipitation shifts southeast in tandem with the upper trough over the region. Consequently, confidence remains high that the fire weather threat will increase this afternoon through the early morning hours Wednesday. High-resolution guidance suggests peak winds are probable during the 09-15 UTC period Wednesday with gusts between 60-80 mph likely at higher elevation (with locally stronger gusts possible). Critical RH thresholds will likely be maintained through the overnight period across western Los Angeles to Ventura and eastern Santa Barbara counties, but may recover into the upper teens southward along the coast. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough across the West will undergo intensification today. A strong mid-level jet will develop in the western Great Basin and California. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the Great Basin into the lower Colorado River Valley. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient may be sufficient to support elevated to critical fire weather by this afternoon. RH will be the main uncertainty during the afternoon, but around 20% appears likely and near 15% is certainly possible. Winds this afternoon will peak at 20-25 mph outside of the terrain. Both the offshore gradient and the supporting upper-level winds are expected to increase in magnitude during the evening/overnight into Wednesday morning. The strongest upper-level winds (and thus wind gusts) are most likely around very late today to early Wednesday. How low RH will remain overnight is also somewhat uncertain, but wind strength (25-35 mph) would still support higher-end critical conditions in the typical Santa Ana corridors in LA/Ventura Counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$