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FNUS22 KWNS 271912

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0211 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021



Valid 281200Z - 291200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN

MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...



Expanded the critical area and elevated areas to account for the

latest forecast guidance. The forecast appears on track with winds

15 to 25 mph and relative humidity ranging from 12 to 25 percent. 



Very dry and windy conditions are also expected in portions of

eastern Oregon. However, fuels are still quite moist in this region.

Therefore, localized increased initial attack is possible, but

overall a large-fire threat is not anticipated.



..Bentley.. 03/27/2021



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0212 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/



...Synopsis...

An upper trough is forecast to move eastward and amplify over the

Northwest and northern Rockies on Sunday, as the downstream upper

trough moves quickly eastward to the Eastern seaboard by Monday

morning. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen in the lee of the

Canadian Rockies and begin moving eastward across the Canadian

Prairies by Sunday evening. 



...Montana into the western Dakotas...

Strengthening westerly flow will spread across most of MT into the

western Dakotas on Sunday, in advance of the approaching upper

trough and to the south of the deepening surface cyclone, with

sustained winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) expected by

afternoon. Guidance shows the typical spread with respect to the

magnitude of mixing/drying within this regime, but generally agrees

that RH values will fall into the 15-30% range as temperatures

increase into the 60s F. These conditions will result in relatively

large area of elevated fire weather conditions. Within this area,

critical conditions will be possible. A critical delineation has

been included where confidence is currently highest in meeting

wind/RH criteria, though some expansion of this area is certainly

possible in subsequent outlooks.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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