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FNUS21 KWNS 181636

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1035 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026



Valid 181700Z - 191200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF IOWA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN

WISCONSIN...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...



...Southern and Central High Plains...

An expansive area of Critical fire weather conditions are still

expected today across much of eastern CO, into portions of the

Southern Plains and southeast NM. An 80-90 kt mid-level jet on the

southern fringe of an approaching short wave, along with deepening

lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains will support a

favorable dry downslope regime across the region. A broad area of

southwest winds between 15 and 25 mph along with afternoon relative

humidity of 10-15 percent will yield high-end Critical fire weather

conditions across much of the southern High Plains including

portions of eastern CO and southeastern NM. Sporadic Extremely

Critical conditions including 30+ mph southwest winds and single

digit relative humidity are most likely across portions of southeast

NM, although overall fuelscape remains only moderately receptive

with ERC percentiles near to below normal. Less volatile but still

Elevated fire weather conditions extend eastward into central TX, OK

and KS where southwest winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity of

15-20 percent align through the afternoon.



...Portions of the Midwest...

Breezy west winds south of a surface low across along with

anomalously dry boundary layer conditions will support a swath of

Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the

Midwest today. West winds of 15-25 mph combined with relative

humidity as low as 15 percent will align from far northeastern NE to

much of IA into northwestern IL. Dry fuels combined with these

Critical meteorological conditions will support wildfire spread over

a region where considerable precipitation deficits have been

observed.



..Williams.. 02/18/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026/



...Synopsis...

Two mid-level shortwave troughs, embedded in a broader low-amplitude

upper troughing pattern, will traverse the central CONUS today. One

trough will overspread the Great Lakes as a surface low gradually

weakens along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border. The second mid-level

trough will eject into the southern Plains by afternoon, accompanied

by an 80-90 kt 500 mb jet streak. As a result, gradient flow

associated with the surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley,

as well as dry downslope flow east of the southern Rockies, will

encourage appreciable wildfire spread potential over portions of the

Midwest and southern High Plains, respectively.



...Southern High Plains...

As downslope flow peaks in intensity by mid to late afternoon,

widespread 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds, with higher

gusts, will overlap with 10-15 percent RH (perhaps lower in some

locales). The best chance for these conditions will be over

northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and immediate

surrounding areas. Given very receptive fuels, high-end Critical

conditions, supporting dangerous/rapid wildfire-spread potential,

are expected. While Extremely Critical conditions are not expected

to be widespread like the yesterday, spotty Extremely Critical

conditions may be observed. Otherwise, 15-20 percent RH will overlap

with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly winds for several hours

across much of the southern High Plains, warranting broad

Elevated/Critical highlights.



...Portions of the Midwest...

Before the surface low undergoes significant weakening, strong

gradient flow will persist during the afternoon, when boundary-layer

mixing will support a belt of overlapping 25 mph sustained westerly

surface winds and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. These

conditions will most likely be observed over central Iowa and

immediate surrounding areas. Such conditions are high-end Critical

for the Midwest, especially when considering that yesterday's

precipitation has not yielded meaningful accumulations, which have

also been lacking in the past few weeks. Rapid, dangerous wildfire

spread is possible wherever dry fuel beds exist, and a sparse

instance of Extremely Critical conditions cannot be ruled out.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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