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FNUS22 KWNS 201955

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0154 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024



Valid 211200Z - 221200Z



...NO CRITICAL AREAS...



Minor updates were made to the D2 Fire Weather Elevated and Critical

areas with latest information on fuels and guidance on expected

meteorological conditions. The Elevated was expanded further west

into New Mexico. Though fuels in this region are currently below the

50th percentile, winds are forecast to be sustained around 20-30

gusting 40-50 mph amid relative humidity reductions to 10-15

percent. Drying of fine fuels should support an increase in fire

spread potential, given these conditions. 



The Critical delineation was shifted further south to the border of

Mexico to include Big Bend. Ensemble guidance shows high confidence

in sustained Critical conditions continuing into these regions amid

ERCs around the 50-60th percentile. Latest fuel guidance indicates

that ERCs will approach the 60-70th percentile on Thursday,

supporting inclusion of the Critical delineation given favorable

meteorological conditions.



..Thornton.. 02/20/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024/



...Synopsis...

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated on

Wednesday across the southern High Plains. The upper wave currently

off the southern CA coast is forecast to shift east over the next 48

hours, reaching NM by Wednesday afternoon. Although the trough is

currently forecast to de-amplify, broad scale ascent ahead of the

wave, coupled with strengthening zonal flow over the southern

Rockies, will promote the development of an organized lee cyclone

over southeast CO/southwest KS by late afternoon. As this occurs, a

broad swath of 20-30 mph west/southwest winds will become

established from central NM into western TX. The passage of the

mid-level jet should phase favorably with peak heating and maximum

boundary-layer depth/mixing. This will foster efficient downward

momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent gusts between 40-50 mph

across central/eastern NM. Downslope warming/drying will promote RH

values in the teens to single digits (possibly as low as 5%) from

the Rio Grande to the OK Panhandle. Widespread elevated fire weather

conditions are expected with critical conditions likely across

eastern NM into western TX. 



Although the worst meteorological conditions are currently

anticipated across eastern NM, fuels across much of the region are

currently not overly receptive, based on recent fuel guidance with

ERCs at or below the 50th percentile. However, warm, dry, and breezy

conditions on Tuesday should promote quick drying of finer fuels

that may support a more robust fire weather threat on Wednesday.

Regardless, Elevated highlights are warranted given the concerning

wind/RH forecast, and more widespread Critical highlights may be

needed based on how fuels trend over the next 24 hours. Further

south across southeast NM/southwest TX, 30-day rainfall totals are

around 10-25% of normal, with persistent drought noted in most

drought metrics. Consequently, fuels across this region should be

more receptive. Although this region may be displaced from the

strongest winds, critical fire weather conditions appear probable.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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