####018000451#### FNUS38 KWNS 012137 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0435 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2026 VALID TIME 031200Z - 091200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... D3 38541016 39660994 40240953 40480899 40650811 39740647 38290503 37810485 37110486 36820531 36630600 36650691 37360898 37300966 37561021 38221042 38541016 && ####018002874#### FNUS28 KWNS 012137 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0435 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Persistent troughing, enhanced flow aloft, and an established dry airmass will maintain fire weather threats across the Great Basin and Southwest through the workweek. Meanwhile, a strong ridge of high pressure will remain across the central-eastern CONUS through the forecast period, promoting widespread above normal temperatures. On Day 3/Friday evening, the upper-level trough is forecast to weaken and transition much of the northern U.S. into zonal flow, while guidance depicts ridging will build across northern Mexico and into the Southwest on Day 4/Saturday. This pattern will favor very dry and locally breezy conditions across the western U.S., while chances of precipitation may alleviate broader fire weather concerns across the Mid-South, Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. ...Discussion... Southwesterly flow associated with upper-level troughing will sustain fire weather concerns across the Greater Four Corners region on Day 3/Friday with minimal to no overnight humidity recoveries expected. As such, 70% Critical probabilities have been maintained where less than 15% RH and terrain induced 15-20 mph winds should overlap exceptionally dry fuels. An upper level trough and strong westerly flow aloft will traverse the Inland Northwest on Day 4/Saturday, while a surface low in southern Alberta will send a dry cold front through the region. Tightening surface pressure gradients should support gusty downslope winds and low RH across the Columbia Basin, promoting localized fire concerns where ERCs are forecast to approach the 80th percentile. High pressure will slightly weaken across the eastern CONUS this weekend with ensemble guidance depicting the ridge to amplify over the central U.S. sometime next week. This may encourage southerly flow aloft to commence in the Desert Southwest, conceivably bringing our first chances at monsoonal moisture. Trends will be monitored for dry thunderstorm potential as predictability increases and guidance resolves the evolution of the overall synoptic pattern. Nevertheless, until sufficient moisture arrives, a critically dry, long-lasting airmass and hot daytime temperatures will reinforce localized fire weather concerns throughout the Intermountain West. While daily chances for precipitation will exist across the eastern CONUS through next week, portions of the Piedmont and Atlantic Coastal Plain will largely remain dry. Localized fire concerns may emerge where occasionally gusty winds and low RH overlap dry fuels. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$