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FNUS21 KWNS 211656

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1055 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024



Valid 211700Z - 221200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR

WEST TEXAS...



Critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeastern

New Mexico into far western Texas this afternoon, with no major

changes needed to the Elevated and Critical areas this morning.

Morning satellite imagery shows mainly sunny skies with temperatures

warming in to the low to mid 70s and mixing already occurring in

surface observations. Gusts to 45 mph are being observed in the

Sacramento Mountains, with gusts generally around 20-30 mph in the

lee of the higher terrain. As daytime heating continues, expect wind

speeds to increase amid deeper mixing, with potential for dangerous

fire weather conditions through the afternoon. See previous

discussion below for more information.



..Thornton.. 02/21/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024/



...Synopsis...

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today

across the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery

depicts a shortwave trough off the southern CA coast gradually

traversing eastward. This feature is expected to gradually

de-amplify through the day, resulting in acceleration of the wave as

it approaches the southern Plains. 00 UTC soundings sampled an

unseasonably warm and dry air mass across the southern High Plains,

with a low-level thermal trough noted in recent analyses extending

from southwest TX to southwest KS. This thermal ridge is hindering

overnight RH recovery with RH values in the low to mid teens noted

in 06 UTC surface observations across east NM and southwest TX. 



Heading into this afternoon, strengthening zonal flow over the

southern Rockies associated with the approach of the upper wave and

attendant jet max will promote continued downslope warming/drying.

Scattered high-level cirrus may filter insolation to some degree,

but diurnal warming coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing and the

persistent downslope flow regime will support another day of RH

values in the 5-10% range. Although a slight dry bias is noted in

recent runs of the RAP/HRRR, the aforementioned observed trends and

RH minimums observed yesterday lend credence to this RH forecast.

20-30 mph west/southwesterly gradient winds are expected based on

strong consensus between high-res ensemble members, as a surface low

deepens over southwest KS and a trailing surface trough/dryline

pushes east. The onset of these winds is expected to occur as soon

as a shallow nocturnal inversion is mixed out, which appears most

likely around 18 UTC. Favorable phasing of the mid-level jet max

with peak diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will foster

efficient downward momentum transfer, manifesting as frequent 40-50

mph gusts by late afternoon. Consequently, widespread elevated to

critical fire weather conditions are expected by early afternoon

across a large swath of the southern High Plains. 



The primary limiting factor for a more robust fire weather threat

continues to be fuel status. Although some fine-fuel drying did

occur yesterday/Monday, most fuels across the TX/OK Panhandles and

parts of southeast CO remain only modestly receptive with ERCs near

the 50th percentile. As such, the Critical risk area remains

confined to far west TX to southeast NM where fuels are drier and

active burning was noted on ongoing fires this afternoon in GOES IR

imagery.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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