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FNUS38 KWNS 202158

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0356 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026



VALID TIME 221200Z - 281200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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####018003740####
FNUS28 KWNS 202158

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0356 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026



Valid 221200Z - 281200Z



...Synopsis...

Mid-level flow will amplify D3/Sunday as a trough deepens over the

far Southeastern US and Atlantic Coast. Widespread rainfall across

much of the Southeast should temporarily alleviate fire weather

concerns over the weekend. Rainfall should be limited farther south

across the Gulf Coast and FL, with particular concern for FL where

dry-post frontal northerly flow could increase the fire weather

threat for Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. The upper ridge will begin

to break down D5/Tuesday, introducing dry return flow and downslope

winds across the Central and Southern Plains, potentially increasing

fire weather concerns through the extended period. 



...Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday - Florida and Southern Plains...

Deep layer northwesterly flow develops across the Southeast and FL

behind a surface cold front underlying an amplifying upper-level

trough across the Northeast. Widespread wetting rainfall from Day

3/Sunday is expected to remain north of the Gulf Coast, with minimal

precipitation across FL. A mostly dry cold front will pass through

the northern FL peninsula late morning D3/Sunday bringing post

frontal northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH of 20-30

percent. Coincident dry fuels should increase the fire weather

threat for a few afternoon hours where 40% Critical probabilities

have been maintained.



As the upper-level trough deepens on D4/Monday, dry northwesterly

flow is expected to continue with poor overnight RH recovery. 40%

Critical probabilities have been expanded to northern FL where

strong winds and critically low minimum RH will overlap dry fuels.

While minimal rainfall is expected on D3/Sunday, uncertainty in

amount and extent precludes the introduction of 70% probabilities

for now. 



Cooler dry return flow will enter the Southern Plains on D3/Sunday

and D4/Monday. This will allow for continued drying of the

fuelscape, setting the stage for increased fire weather concerns on

D5/Tuesday.



...Day 5/Tuesday - Central and Southern Plains...

Fire weather concerns reemerge across portions of the central and

southern High Plains via dry return flow and increasing westerly

winds aloft as the upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West

starts to break down. 40% critical probabilities have been added

where a combination of low RH and strong westerly winds overlap dry

fuels in eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Beneath the upper-level

ridge a surface low will emerge in the lee of the Laramie Range,

tightening a surface pressure gradient across eastern WY and western

NE. Very strong downslope winds may occur, though cooler

temperatures and RH uncertainties have limited the introduction of

70% Critical probabilities for now.



...Day 6/Wednesday - West Texas...

40% Critical probabilities have been maintained across the West TX

region as long-range models are hinting at hot, dry, and windy

conditions atop dry fuels. Increasing northwest flow aloft and

induced surface lee troughing will support increased fire weather

concerns. 



...Day 7/Thursday - D8/Wednesday... 

Uncertainty is too high for the extended period to introduce

probabilities for Critical conditions. Nevertheless, as the

upper-ridge flattens and multiple short-wave impulses cross central

CONUS, the pattern may suggest an ongoing fire weather threat

through the forecast period.



..Elizalde-Garcia/Elliott.. 02/20/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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