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FNUS21 KWNS 220646

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1245 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024



Valid 221200Z - 231200Z



...Synopsis...

Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern/southwest TX

this afternoon. 06 UTC surface observations show a very dry air mass

in place across the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens

over northern OK. Over the next 12-24 hours, this low is forecast to

weaken as it migrates to the east/northeast, which will lead to a

gradual reduction in gradient winds over the southern Plains.

Although winds will be considerably weaker compared to

yesterday/Wednesday, areas of 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected

in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Latest guidance

places this front across southern TX by peak heating. The antecedent

dry air mass should promote afternoon RH minimums near 10-20% - even

behind the cold front, owing to fairly weak cold advection.

Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a

swath of southern/southwest TX. Locally critical conditions are

probable across the Big Bend region, generally along I-10 and

southward to the Rio Grande where ensemble consensus shows a

somewhat higher probability for sustained winds between 20-25 mph.

After warm, dry, and windy conditions yesterday, fine fuels across

the region should be receptive and will support the fire weather

threat.



..Moore.. 02/22/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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