####018003244#### FNUS21 KWNS 131656 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN AND TRANSVERSE RANGES.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Early morning observations show strengthening northeasterly offshore winds are developing across the higher terrain and interior valleys of Ventura and LA Counties, as an upper-level shortwave trough moves south along the coast. Recent gusts at OXR and CMA to 40-50 mph, should become more widespread as offshore pressure gradients strengthen across portions of western LA County and the western Santa Monica Mountains through midday. Coincident with critically low RH to 10-15%, several hours of high-end critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Winds should weaken slightly this afternoon and evening, as the shortwave trough moves southwest before deepening into an upper low. Offshore pressure gradients will quickly strengthen once again, after sunset tonight, as the upper low strengthens and a mid-level jet max of 30-50 kt approaches from the northeast. Offshore gradients of -10 to -14 mb (LAX-TPH) will support 30-40 mph sustained winds with locally damaging gusts to 55-75 mph through western LA and Ventura County Santa Ana corridors. The strongest winds are expected late tonight into early D2/Tuesday, as the maximum in upper-level support aligns with the strongest offshore gradients. Very low RH, below 10%, and the strong wind gusts will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions conducive to extreme spread rates and fire behavior with any ignitions. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft is poised to morph into a cut-off low off of the southern California shoreline today. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the Great Basin, fortifying a pressure gradient over southern California through the period. During the first few hours of the period, and during the later half of the day into early Tuesday morning, some strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is likely. For much of the day into early Tuesday morning, widespread sustained offshore winds over 20 mph are likely, with terrain-favoring areas experiencing 30-40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) at times. RH is also expected to dip to 10 percent in spots during peak winds. As such, widespread Critical conditions are likely from the Ventura Valley toward the Laguna Mountains. Extremely Critical conditions may develop in the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance members show the greatest agreement in longer-lasting, intense surface winds (perhaps exceeding 50 mph) that are capable of supporting extreme fire behavior, as well as the very rapid spread of any new wildfires that may develop. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$