####018002473#### FNUS28 KWNS 222151 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 011200Z An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D3/Saturday through D4/Sunday. Surface high pressure across the central US will keep winds generally light where the driest conditions are expected in the central and southern high Plains. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low through the weekend for much of the CONUS, though spotty elevated conditions in the lee of terrain features will be possible Sunday across the southern and central High Plains. Confidence is increasing in Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions returning to the High Plains on D5/Monday. Late D4/Sunday into D5/Monday an upper-level low will begin to phase with the Polar jet stream, with the western ridge drifting east and westerly flow aloft overspreading the Rockies. This pattern will favor strengthening lee troughing east of the Rockies and a return of windy/dry westerly downslope flow into the central/southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-30 mph (gusting 40-50 mph). Recent fuel analysis indicates fuels across much of western Texas and eastern New Mexico are nearing average to above average dryness, given recent warm/dry/windy conditions from the last 2-3 days. As such, 70 percent probabilities were added across the regions of highest confidence in drying fuels that will support fire spread from eastern New Mexico south into far western Texas and north into the Texas Panhandles. Late in the period D6/Tuesday into D7/Wednesday, a deeper trough may develop across the western US before moving eastward across the Rockies, with potential for development of a strong lee cyclone and attendant cold front shifting southward. Long range guidance differences in location and speed of this developing low leading to uncertainty in how widespread lower afternoon relative humidity values will be. As such a 40 percent delineation was added, due to the strength of the forecast surface winds where medium confidence was overlap of windy/dry conditions. This threat will need to be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 02/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ ####018000271#### FNUS38 KWNS 222151 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CST THU FEB 22 2024 VALID TIME 241200Z - 011200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... &&