####018003235####
FNUS22 KWNS 011933

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0232 PM CDT Thu Apr 01 2021



Valid 021200Z - 031200Z



Expanded the elevated area in the Plains to the north and east.

Winds will likely be sustained at 20 to 25 mph across much of the TX

Panhandle, Oklahoma, and Kansas into the Upper Midwest. However, the

drier relative humidity will be closer to the diffuse

dryline/trough. Some high resolution guidance does drop relative

humidity as low as 25 percent farther east. Therefore, trends will

need to be monitored and a farther north and east expansion of this

elevated area may be warranted. 



Also expanded the elevated area in northern Montana to include much

of North Dakota and portions of South Dakota. Winds of 15 to 20 mph

are expected in this region with relative humidity dropping below 15

percent. In addition, this region has seen several consecutive days

of dry and windy conditions which has dried fuels further.



..Bentley.. 04/01/2021



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Apr 01 2021/



...Synopsis...

Broad low-amplitude upper-level ridging is forecast to become

established over the CONUS through the day Friday. Impulses embedded

within the larger flow regime will introduce areas of gustier winds

that could lead to fire weather concerns for parts of the northern

Plains and southern High Plains. Elsewhere across the U.S., broad

surface high pressure over the mid-South and Ohio River Valley will

yield relatively weak surface winds and reduce the fire weather

potential. 



...Northern Plains...

The exit of Thursday's surface low to the east/northeast will reduce

pressure-gradient winds over the region for Friday. However,

continued zonal flow over the northern Rockies will favor persistent

downslope flow across northern MT. Winds between 15-20 mph should

overlap regions of reduced humidity down to 20-30% by Friday

afternoon, and given receptive fine fuels, will introduce the

potential for elevated fire weather conditions. To the southeast,

portions of WY and SD may experience elevated wind/RH conditions

behind a surface trough that will be migrating across the northern

Plains. However, these conditions should remain fairly localized and

transient. 



...Southern High Plains...

The upper-level shortwave trough that is currently off the south CA

coast is forecast to move onshore and into northern Mexico over the

next 24-48 hours. Somewhat weak surface pressure falls are expected

across northern NM ahead of this wave. This will augment the

pressure gradient already in place due to the stout surface high to

the east. Southerly sustained winds at 15-25 mph appear likely from

southwest TX into central KS. Modest moisture return into the Trans

Pecos region (where the driest fuels are noted) may mitigate

humidity reductions compared to further north where RH values near

20% should be common. Fuels across the OK/TX Panhandles are somewhat

marginal due to spring green-up, but should remain dry enough to

support an elevated fire weather concern.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$