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FNUS22 KWNS 021921

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0221 PM CDT Fri Apr 02 2021



Valid 031200Z - 041200Z



Recent hi-res guidance has trended drier across the Dakotas in the

vicinity of the surface low/trough mentioned in the discussion

below. Guidance has generally been over-forecasting relative

humidity values over the past 24 hours across the Plains, and

dewpoints in the teens are currently overspreading the western

Dakotas. These considerations have increased confidence in reduced

RH values between 15-25%. Winds around 15-20 mph remain likely and

fuels will also remain supportive of fire spread. As such, an

elevated risk area has been introduced. 



...Northern Ohio River Valley...

Pressure-gradient winds are forecast to increase well into the 15-20

mph range by tomorrow afternoon across eastern IL into IN and

western OH (where fine fuel moisture is falling to around 10%).

Although guidance suggests dewpoints should increase enough to

maintain above-criteria RH, confidence in sufficient moisture return

remains somewhat low based on current upstream observations and

recent model biases. An elevated risk area may be introduced in

subsequent outlooks if observed trends suggest RH will be lower than

currently anticipated. 



...Southeast...

Low humidity is expected across much of the Southeast U.S. with

20-30% likely from southeast AL into the Carolinas and southern PA.

Fine fuels are receptive in some areas, but weak winds under surface

high pressure will mitigate any robust fire weather concerns.



..Moore.. 04/02/2021



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CDT Fri Apr 02 2021/



...Synopsis...

Ridging at upper-levels will continue to be the main feature across

the West and into the Mississippi Valley on Saturday. The surface

high pressure system is expected to weaken in the Southeast with the

pattern in elsewhere being relatively disorganized. A subtle

shortwave trough at upper-levels will move into the northern Rockies

by afternoon. A weak surface low will develop in MT and the western

Dakotas. With the low, a diffuse surface boundary will move east

during the day. Southwesterly winds in portions of central South

Dakota into eastern North Dakota could reach 15-20 mph during the

afternoon. Surface conditions are likely to be dry with most areas

seeing 20-25%, though areas of 15-20% are possible. Given the

overall disorganized surface pressure pattern, conditions are most

likely going to remain elevated on a relatively brief and localized

basis. Elsewhere across the CONUS, weak winds over dry fuels will

keep fire weather concerns low.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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