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FNUS38 KWNS 192114

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025



VALID TIME 211200Z - 271200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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FNUS28 KWNS 192114

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0312 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025



Valid 211200Z - 271200Z



Upper-level ridging will slowly build out of northern Mexico into

the southern/central US next week then slowly drift east, with the

upper high likely shifting from north-central Mexico to the

Louisiana Gulf Coast/vicinity. Strong flow will be on the periphery

of the ridging with some stronger flow/smaller jets traversing

across the southern/Colorado Rockies. Deeper troughing is likely to

develop off the West Coast before moving into the West and breaking

down/shifting the upper ridge over the southern/central US. 



...Southern/Central High Plains...

Stronger flow aloft will spread across the Colorado/southern

Rockies, increasing downslope flow and lee troughing on Day

4/Monday. This will likely result in elevated to perhaps critical

fire weather conditions in portions of northeast New Mexico, far

southeast Colorado, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. There appears

to be a slackening of the flow aloft on Day 5/Tuesday as the ridge

builds and before the next jet arrives. However, some dry/breezy

conditions remain possible in the vicinity of the Day 4/Monday 40%

area. 



On Day 6/Wednesday, forecast guidance indicates a small jet will

move over the southern/Colorado Rockies, which will increase

downslope flow and likely result in elevated to critical conditions.

While there is good forecast guidance agreement on the timing and

location of this feature, only a smaller 40% area was included due

to the typical uncertainty associated with these types of features.

Dry/windy conditions are likely late next week on portions of the

southern/central High Plains as a deep trough moves into the West

and begins to break down and shift the ridge over the

southern/central US. However, the timing and orientation the

stronger flow aloft remains uncertain and precludes introducing

probabilities at this time.



Given the lack of recent and forecast precipitation and multiple

rounds of elevated/critical fire weather conditions for the

southern/central Plains, fuels have and will continue to cure.

Increased fuel loading across many of these areas, especially in

portions of Oklahoma and Texas, are of concern with any forecast

elevated/critical fire weather conditions.



..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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