####018002804#### FNUS28 KWNS 032125 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Sat Apr 03 2021 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The evolution and progression of an upper-level shortwave trough will drive the fire weather potential for much of the extended period. This feature is forecast to progress from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin early this week before shifting into the Plains by mid/late week. Surface pressure falls ahead of this wave, as well as strong lee troughing, will augment pressure-gradient winds and introduce widespread fire weather concerns across the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...D3/Monday - Southern Great Basin... Surface pressure falls are anticipated across the central to southern Great Basin as the upper-level wave begins to move into northern NV through the day Monday. Widespread winds between 15-25 mph appear likely across the southern Great Basin and much of NM/AZ. Antecedent warm and dry conditions are already in place, and diurnal warming/mixing will help RH values fall well into the low teens. A broad swath of elevated fire weather conditions is likely and many locations may experience periods of critical fire weather conditions. While fuels continue to cure across the region, the most receptive fuels remain across northwest AZ into southern/eastern UT. Recent reports suggest fuels have also become receptive across eastern NV, warranting a westward expansion. However, increasing cloud cover over NV through the afternoon may limit the coverage/duration of elevated to critical conditions. ...D4/Tuesday to D6/Thursday - Southern High Plains... The ejection of the upper-level wave into the Plains on D4/Tuesday, followed by several days of lingering zonal flow over the southern Rockies, will introduce a period of fire weather potential during the mid-week period. D4/Tuesday continues to show the most favorable synoptic pattern for widespread critical conditions across much of NM and into west TX where fuels remain cured. Ensemble guidance supports this idea with high probabilities for critical wind/RH thresholds being met for much of the day. For D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday, persistent zonal flow over the southern Rockies, and subsequent lee troughing, will result in west/northwesterly downslope flow across southeast NM into southwest TX. While the overall signal remains consistent from previous days, the coverage and magnitude of the fire weather threat remains somewhat uncertain. This potential may linger into D7/Friday as well, but confidence remains too low to delineate any one area. ..Moore.. 04/03/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ ####018000415#### FNUS38 KWNS 032125 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0423 PM CDT SAT APR 03 2021 VALID TIME 051200Z - 111200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... D4 30980469 31540546 31860589 32160738 34020705 35550498 36890380 36990255 36220214 34600220 32370249 31450333 30980469 &&