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FNUS22 KWNS 251954

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0153 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024



Valid 261200Z - 271200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO

THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...



The Elevated area has been expanded into more of the central Plains

and Midwest. Surface winds should reach 15-20 mph ahead of the

surface front with RH likely falling to around 20-25% (locally

lower, particularly with westward extent). Elsewhere, only minor

modifications were made based on the most recent guidance.



..Wendt.. 02/25/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/



...Synopsis...

Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually

coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific

trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak

perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across

the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee

trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum

transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds

across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and

dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical

fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains.



...Southern and central High Plains...

As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee

troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central

High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday

afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western

TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon

RH values will fall to 15-20%.  Intensifying dryness in area fuels

is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with

the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to

critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and

central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also

possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE,

though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$