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FNUS21 KWNS 041513

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1012 AM CDT Sun Apr 04 2021



Valid 041700Z - 051200Z



The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments

necessary based on the latest observed trends and morning guidance.

The central/southern High Plains remain the most likely region to

see persistent/widespread elevated, to potentially critical, fire

weather conditions. To the north, elevated conditions remain

probable for northern MT, but increasing cloud cover maintains

uncertainty for the western Dakotas (though pockets of elevated

conditions may develop this afternoon). While dry conditions (RH

between 15-25%) will overspread portions of IA/MN/WI, as well as

much of the East Coast and Southeast, winds should remain too light

to warrant additional highlights.



..Moore.. 04/04/2021



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sun Apr 04 2021/



...Synopsis...

An upper-level ridge across most of the country will continue to

slowly shift east today. The ridge will begin to erode from the west

as a shortwave trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Some

increasing flow across the northern/central Rockies will help a

surface trough in the Plains to the east.



...Central/Southern High Plains...

With the southeastern surface high maintaining some strength

tomorrow, increasing winds within the lowest 2-3 km will promote

15-25 mph winds from northeastern New Mexico into western Kansas.

Dry south-southwesterly winds tend to limit moisture return into the

area as compared to points eastward. RH will likely fall to 15-20%

with low teens locally, perhaps. Elevated conditions are probable

with locally critical conditions possible.



...Montana...

Increasing mid/high-level cloud cover will tend to limit heating

during the afternoon. However, dry low-level conditions will remain

with modest westerly surface winds. RH may fall under 20% in

localized areas, but will generally be 20-25% for a majority of

northern/northeastern Montana. Models have continued to trend

downward in terms of wind speeds. The greatest chance for sustained

elevated conditions will likely be in terrain-favored locations.



...Western Dakotas...

Dry air will remain across the region tomorrow with RH of 15-20%

expected. Winds will be more questionable than previous days.

However, some guidance shows a weak surface low developing in the

northern High Plains vicinity which could locally enhance surface

winds. Elevated conditions may be sustained for a few hours

conditional on the strength of the surface trough/weak low.



...Northeast Iowa into Western Wisconsin...

A warm front will lift northward through the region tomorrow

morning. Low-level winds will continue to strengthen as the trough

deepens to the west. Despite moisture increasing during the day, the

primary surge will likely be late. This could leave a narrow window

where elevated conditions exist at least briefly. RH of 20-25% may

occur, but there is a wide range of values forecast in guidance.

Even with the drier solutions tending to perform well as of late,

the limited spatial extent, duration, and increasing cloud cover

precludes highlights this outlook.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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