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FNUS22 KWNS 011931

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0231 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026



Valid 021200Z - 031200Z



...Afternoon Update...

Recent guidance has trended towards a more accelerated cold frontal

progression across the northern Plains on Saturday afternoon,

resulting in minor adjustments to the Elevated risk area. While the

cold front will be dry, increasing cloud cover along and behind the

front will allow RH to remain somewhat marginal between 25-35

percent in southeastern MT and south-central ND. In far northeastern

WY and northwestern SD, a much drier airmass will exist for a few

hours ahead of the front, with RH between 10-20 percent before

rising as the front passes. However, the driest air and stronger

winds do not overlap, precluding the introduction of critical

highlights at this time. Very strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph

(gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours following the

frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather conditions. 



In FL, Elevated highlights have been expanded slightly to account

for a broader region of sustained west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph

and RH of less than 35 percent. An eastward progressing shortwave

will phase with an amplifying upper trough over the Eastern

Seaboard, cultivating an elongated surface low to develop east of

the Carolinas coastline. A strong 30-50 kt 700-850 mb jet is

expected to develop over central FL in the wake of the departing

low, yet expansive high cloud cover and increasing mid/low clouds

along the incoming front may prevent deeper mixing. However, in

sporadic areas that experience partly cloudy skies, wind gusts of up

to 30 mph across central FL could mix down to the surface,

exacerbating any new/existing fires. Wetting rainfall behind the

frontal passage should provide relief to the fire environment into

the overnight hours.



..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/



...Synopsis...

Mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US

Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft also strengthens. This will

drive a cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry

conditions are expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west of

the upper trough, northwesterly flow will persist over the Plains

ahead of a ridge over the Great Basin. A dry cold front will move

southward across the northern Plains supporting dry and breezy

conditions into parts of the Dakotas/MT.



...FL...

Another day of dry and breezy conditions is expected for portions of

central and southern FL. Surface winds should be somewhat stronger

than Friday as the upper trough over the eastern US deepens and flow

aloft increases. Surface gusts of 10-20 mph are possible amid RH

below 35%. Area fuels remain quite dry with little recent rainfall

and ERC values above the 95th percentile. Fire-weather concerns

should end with the frontal passage and some light rainfall possible

into the evening and overnight.



...Northern Plains...

On the backside of the broader eastern US trough, a subtle shortwave

will support a weak surface cyclone along a cold front moving out

southern Canada. Gusty northwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected

with the front. With little surface moisture in place, afternoon RH

values below 20% are likely. Combined with dry fuels, the dry/breezy

conditions will likely support a few hours of elevated fire weather

concerns across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern

MT, where recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$