####018000415####
FNUS38 KWNS 042041

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0339 PM CDT SUN APR 04 2021



VALID TIME 061200Z - 121200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D3     30980469 31540546 31860589 32190722 33760725 35090556

       36970399 36990255 36220214 34600220 32370249 31450333

       30980469

&&

####018002828####
FNUS28 KWNS 042041

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0339 PM CDT Sun Apr 04 2021



Valid 061200Z - 121200Z



Confidence remains high that an upper-level trough, currently noted

moving onshore across the Pacific Northwest, will introduce

widespread fire weather concerns from the southern Great

Basin/Southwest into the southern High Plains for the first half of

the extended period. Following this wave, additional fire weather

concerns are possible along the High Plains, but increased spread in

guidance at this range yields low confidence in the fire weather

potential. 



...D3/Tuesday to D5/Thursday - Southwest/Southern High Plains..

Conditions generally remain dry across the Southwest into the

southern High Plains thanks to low humidity (in the teens) and

limited precipitation over the past few days. The progression of the

upper-level low over the central Rockies will lead to strong lee

troughing and the deepening of a surface low over eastern CO/western

KS by D3/Tuesday afternoon. Westerly downslope winds at 20-25 mph

are forecast to overspread much of NM into west TX. Strong 30-40 mph

mid-level flow will likely mix down as diurnal heating steepens

low-level lapse rates by late afternoon. As a result, widespread

elevated to critical conditions appear likely. 



Lingering semi-zonal flow over the southern Rockies on D4/Wednesday

and D5/Thursday will support additional days of westerly downslope

winds at the surface. Fuels should remain receptive and RH

reductions to at least 15-20% seem likely. The main uncertainty for

both days is the coverage and magnitude of wind speeds across the

region, though long-range ensemble guidance continues to show

reasonable probability for sustained 20+ mph winds in the region. A

cold frontal passage late Thursday introduces additional

uncertainty, though critical conditions ahead of the front are

possible.



...D5/Thursday to D6/Friday - High Plains...

A second upper-level wave is forecast to begin moving into the

Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies by late D5/Thursday and shift

into the central Plains by Friday. A surface cold front associated

with this wave will likely progress from central MT southward along

the High Plains during this period. Breezy conditions behind the

front can be expected, and some guidance suggests sufficient dry air

advection will be in place to support RH values in the low 20s. This

could introduce elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

However, light rain chances along the front as well as notable

spread in the humidity forecast preclude any risk probabilities at

this time.



..Moore.. 04/04/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$