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FNUS21 KWNS 050626

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0126 AM CDT Mon Apr 05 2021



Valid 051200Z - 061200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...



...Synopsis...

A strong shortwave trough will dig southeastward into the

central/southern Great Basin. A southern stream mid-level jet will

phase with the trough and bring strong winds aloft across much of

the Basin into the Southwest. At the surface, the trough will bring

a cold front through Nevada to near the Four Corners by the end of

the period. Farther east, a surface low will deepen along the CO/KS

border, particularly overnight. A strong upper-low will remain off

the Northeast coast bringing enhanced low-level winds across parts

of New England into the Mid-Atlantic.



...Southwest/Great Basin...

Strong southwesterly winds are likely as the cold front approaches

during the day. The strengthening pressure gradient will be

augmented by the strong winds aloft. Winds of 20-30 mph are

possible, especially north of the Mogollon Rim. With RH nearing

10-15%, critical fire weather is likely in northeast Arizona.

Long-term drought will limit the abundance of fuels, but those that

are present will be available to burn.



In NV/UT, similarly dry conditions will exist with RH potentially as

low as 10-15% with 15-20% becoming more common with northward

westward extent. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be

possible in these locations. Fuels are slightly less receptive as

compared to AZ so critical highlights will be withheld this outlook.





...Southern/Central High Plains...

Mid-level winds will be weaker this far east, though the deepening

lee cyclone will still promote 15-20 mph wind with higher speeds

possible in terrain-favored areas. Very deep mixing is expected with

potential for 5-20% RH by afternoon. Locally critical conditions may

occur in wind-prone areas, but elevated fire weather is the main

expectation given the weaker surface winds.



...Northeast...

Surface winds of around 15 mph are possible during the afternoon.

Winds could gust into the 20-30 mph range. Mid-level dry air on the

western flank of the upper-low will keep skies clear and allow RH to

fall to 25-35%. Elevated fire weather is expected given dry fine

fuels.



..Wendt.. 04/05/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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