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FNUS21 KWNS 270758

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024



Valid 271200Z - 281200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND

WESTERN OKLAHOMA...



...Synopsis...

Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough

merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the

central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains

and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread

elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted.



...Southern Plains...

As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level

flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25

mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western

and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the

unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud

cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still,

widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions

appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant

fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more

receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence

exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central

OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are

expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity.



To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface

trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest

winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While

RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm

temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally

critical fire-weather conditions.



Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as

a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind

the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly.

Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly

limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours.



..Lyons.. 02/27/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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