####018000586#### FNUS38 KWNS 182159 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025 VALID TIME 201200Z - 261200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... D3 34171694 33611733 33461773 33691816 34041795 34171808 34171823 33941884 34161934 34451943 34891880 34681751 34491709 34171694 D4 34541711 33321648 32571623 32431718 33211748 33471775 33681816 33981802 34111825 33951886 34171935 34451943 34881877 34671752 34541711 && ####018002007#### FNUS28 KWNS 182159 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Southern California - Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... On the upstream side of a highly amplified, positive-tilt large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and belt of strong low/midlevel northerly flow will overspread southern CA. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will shift slowly eastward over the eastern Pacific, while surface high pressure strengthens over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will rapidly tighten across southern CA, with magnitudes indicative of a strong Santa Ana wind event. Guidance is in good agreement, depicting a LAX-DAG gradient around -7 to -8 mb, with some guidance showing the gradient as low as -10 to -11 mb (peaking around 12Z-14Z on Day 4/Tuesday). This gradient, coupled with the strong upper-level support, will yield very strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds amid single-digit to lower teens RH from Day 3/Monday night into Day 4/Tuesday. 70-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for the typical wind-prone Santa Ana corridor, and the potential for Extremely Critical conditions is increasing over portions of western Los Angeles County into Ventura County. Critical probabilities have also been expanded southward into San Diego County, where confidence in strong offshore winds and low RH has increased. From Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, high pressure will rebuild over the Intermountain West, potentially favoring another increase in the offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. Current indications are that the upper-level support and gradient will be weaker than Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday, though elevated to critical conditions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$