####018002694####
FNUS28 KWNS 232142

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0340 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025



Valid 251200Z - 311200Z



...Synopsis...

The expansive mid-level ridge across the central U.S. begins to move

eastward as a robust mid/upper level trough over the Northeast

Pacific continues to bring widespread rain and mountain snow to much

of the West. Persistent lee troughing under steady westerly flow

aloft should bring dry and breezy conditions on Day

3-5/Thursday-Saturday across portions of the southern High Plains

where record high temperatures are possible. The trough across the

West finally pushes deeper into Intermountain West by Day

5/Saturday, allowing fire weather concerns to linger across the

southern High Plains under an intensifying mid-level jet. A

mid-level trough deepens across the eastern U.S. early next week

ushering in a sweeping cold front that should reach the Gulf Coast

by Day 7/Monday. Dry post-frontal winds could increase fire concerns

across portions of the Southern Plains and Southeast in the Day

6-8/Sunday-Tuesday period where pockets of drier fuels exist and

minimal rainfall is expected.



...Day 3-5/Thursday-Saturday...

Anomalously warm temperatures in the 70s and 80s under a persistent

mid-level ridge will continue to dry fuels across the central and

southern High Plains through this week. Surface lee troughing across

the Plains along with downslope drying and enhanced west-southwest

winds should present an ongoing fire weather threat across portions

of far eastern NM, TX Panhandle and  far western OK. Increasing

cloud cover and surface dewpoints across the southern High Plains

could inhibit boundary layer mixing on Day 3/Thursday, limiting RH

reductions and mitigating a more widespread critical fire weather

event for the TX Panhandle. Drier conditions and lower daytime

relative humidity should return to the region Day

4-5/Friday-Saturday coinciding with enhanced southwest surface winds

under deep layer west-southwest flow. 40 percent critical

probabilities remain for portions of the TX Panhandle vicinity on

Day 4/Friday and were similarly added on Day 5/Saturday.



...Day 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday...

A cold front sweeping through the eastern U.S. should be the primary

focus for fire weather threats early next week. However, latest

model guidance suggests expansive cloud cover and potential rainfall

along and behind the front which could mitigate fire weather

concerns within the dry post frontal regime.



..Williams.. 12/23/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 232142

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0340 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025



VALID TIME 251200Z - 311200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



&&