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FNUS21 KWNS 070718

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0218 AM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021



Valid 071200Z - 081200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...



...Synopsis...

An upper-level trough will slow its progression today as it reaches

the Lower Missouri Valley. In the Northwest, an upper-level trough

will reach portions of the Northern Rockies. At the surface a cold

front will continue southward through Texas to near the Gulf coast

with the deepening of the Midwest cyclone. Another cyclone is

forecast to develop in the lee of the Canadian Rockies.



...New Mexico into western Texas...

With the surface low continuing to become further removed from the

region during the day, the potential for widespread critical fire

weather will be low. However, a very deep boundary layer will

develop by afternoon and mix strong winds to the surface across

portions of central New Mexico. Here, RH of 5-15% will overlap with

20 mph surface winds. In southern New Mexico, the RH could be even

lower, though winds will be lighter with the mid-level jet to the

north. Farther east into Texas, RH will be 10-25% with winds

generally in the 15-20 mph range. Locally elevated conditions could

occur as far east as portions of central Texas. Stronger winds will

be displaced to the north, however, and fuels are less receptive

that far east.



...North-central Montana...

15-25% RH is possible during the afternoon in the lee of the

Rockies. Winds could approach 20 mph in some locations as the

surface low deepens across the Canadian border. The spatial extent

of the dry/windy conditions will not be overly large, but recent

large fire activity suggests there is enough concern for elevated

highlights.



...Central North Dakota...

The deepening surface low in western/central Iowa will drive

enhanced northeasterly winds across portions of eastern and central

North Dakota. Mid and upper-level clouds will likely be present. A

narrow region of 20-25% RH is possible along the back edge of the

cloud shield. Given recent fire activity, fine fuels will carry

fire. Confidence in the duration of 15-20 mph winds is too low for

highlights, but locally elevated conditions do appear possible.



..Wendt.. 04/07/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$