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FNUS22 KWNS 071844

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0143 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021



Valid 081200Z - 091200Z



The elevated risk area across the Southwest has been expanded based

on recent trends in guidance and receptive fuels. Although

confidence in widespread critical conditions remains low due to a

somewhat unfavorable synoptic pattern, southern to central NM should

see the highest potential for periods of sustained winds over 20

mph. A critical risk area may be introduced if confidence continues

to increase in the wind forecast.



...Northern Plains...

Strong winds are expected behind a cold front that will begin

pushing southeastward across MT and into the western Dakotas through

the late afternoon and evening hours. Post-frontal humidity should

remain high enough to mitigate widespread fire weather concerns,

though localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible. The

lowest humidity will generally be ahead of the front across the

Dakotas where winds are expected to remain around 10-15 mph.



...Central High Plains...

Breezy northwesterly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across the

CO/NE/KS tri-state region. Downslope trajectories emanating from the

northern Rockies, along with clear skies, should allow for RH to

fall into the 15-25% range. Elevated, to locally critical,

meteorological conditions appear possible. However, MRMS estimates

show swaths of 0.1+ inch precipitation across this region over the

past 24 hours, which may have mitigated fuel readiness to some

degree. As a result, the fire weather threat will be conditional on

local fuel status. An elevated risk area may be needed in subsequent

updates if future reports suggest fuels are receptive despite the

recent rainfall.



..Moore.. 04/07/2021



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021/



...Synopsis...

An upper-level trough will continue to pivot northward into the

upper Great Lakes region on Thursday. A trough upstream in the

northern Rockies will slide southeastward into the central Rockies

by the end of the forecast period. Moderate mid-level westerly winds

will exist across a broad swath of the southwestern U.S. At the

surface, a large surface trough will extend from the Midwestern low

westward to the Continental Divide. A cold front will begin to move

into the Great Basin with high pressure increasing across the

Pacific Northwest.



...Southwest into the Trans-Pecos...

Deep boundary-layer mixing will bring enhanced winds to the surface.

Most areas will see 15-20 mph, though a few areas of 20+ may occur.

RH will fall to 5-15%. Elevated fire weather is expected during the

afternoon. The lack of stronger flow aloft and a relatively weak

surface pressure pattern should keep critical conditions localized.



...Southern into eastern Utah...

A shortwave trough will approach from the northwest, though the

stronger winds associated with it will likely be displaced farther

northward during peak heating. Similarly, the front and increasing

surface pressure gradient will also not occur until the

evening/overnight. However, locally elevated to near critical

conditions are at least possible in these areas where fuels have

sufficiently cured.



...Santa Barbara/Ventura County Mountains...

High pressure off the West Coast will drive northerly winds into the

Transverse Ranges. 20-25 mph winds are possible in the higher

terrain with RH falling as low as 10-20% into Thursday evening. Lack

of precipitation over the past two weeks has allowed fuels to cure

with ERCs reaching above normal and relatively high for this time of

year. The locally elevated risk should remain confined to the higher

terrain.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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