####018003150####
FNUS28 KWNS 072151

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0449 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021



Valid 091200Z - 151200Z



The fire weather potential for this weekend and into the middle of

next week will generally be driven by the progression of upper-level

shortwave troughs propagating into the central CONUS within a mean

northwesterly flow regime. This pattern is not particularly

favorable for widespread, robust fire weather threats, but given dry

fuels and ongoing drought across the Southwest and parts of the

Plains, regional fire weather concerns will likely present

themselves. 



...D3/Friday to D5/Sunday - Southwest and Southern High Plains...

An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to propagate from the

northern Rockies into the central/southern Plains through D3/Friday.

Surface pressure falls are expected across TX/OK as a low begins to

consolidate, which will augment pressure-gradient winds across the

southern High Plains. West/northwesterly downslope flow emanating

from the southern Rockies will overspread a region with dry fuels

and support widespread elevated, to periodically critical, fire

weather conditions. 



Building surface high pressure behind a cold front will limit the

fire weather potential across the southern High Plains for

D4/Saturday, but modest pressure falls across the Four Corners

region may support a region of enhanced low-level flow over west

NM/east AZ. Critical wind/RH combinations are possible, but elevated

conditions appear more likely. A second wave translating over the

central Rockies on D5/Sunday may strengthen a lee cyclone enough to

support widespread strong winds across the Southwest and southern

High Plains. However, the southward progression of a cold front

through the day may limit this potential and yields low confidence

in any one solution.



...D3/Friday to D5/Sunday - Northern and Central High Plains...

A cold front is expected to surge southward along the High Plains on

D3/Friday. Breezy post-frontal conditions are expected with winds

between 15-25 mph. More aggressive solutions hint at RH reductions

down to 20-30% from the western Dakotas southward into eastern CO,

but notable spread in guidance and low ensemble probabilities of

meeting RH criteria introduces uncertainty into the fire weather

potential. 



Long-range deterministic guidance is in better agreement regarding

the potential for low RH and strong winds behind a second cold front

that should be moving across MT on D4/Saturday. Given very dry

conditions across eastern MT and the Dakotas, a fire weather threat

is anticipated, though the exact coverage is somewhat uncertain and

rain chances in the prior 48 hours may mitigate fine fuel readiness

to some degree. This front will continue southward into the central

High Plains on D5/Sunday where breezy/dry post-frontal conditions

may again present a fire weather concern for portions of CO, NE, and

KS.



..Moore.. 04/07/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 072151

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0449 PM CDT WED APR 07 2021



VALID TIME 091200Z - 151200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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